Blog Archives

Looking back on GOPLifer predictions

From its beginnings after the 2008 election, the GOPLifer project was driven by foreboding. Republicans had, through a combination of denial and neglect, allowed dangerous forces to build. Absent some drastic intervention from the party’s sharper, braver minds, it seemed

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Posted in blue wall, Election 2016, Republican Party, Uncategorized

Bernie Sanders and the Blue Wall

A pattern was evident in the results from the 2014 Election. Though the prevailing narrative focused on the number of Republican victories, a close look at the map revealed the culmination of a long, dangerous trend for the party. Those

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Posted in blue wall, Election 2016, Uncategorized

Republicans’ demographic trap on display

Voters in Houston yesterday rejected a city ordinance that would have allowed perverts to molest little girls in public bathrooms with impunity. At least that’s what your grandmother’s Facebook post said. You are skeptical of Nana’s consistently batty claims, but

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Posted in blue wall, Blueprint for Republican Reform, Election 2016

A look at the 2016 Senate Races

With any hope of retaking the White House slipping behind the big Blue Ball, Republicans badly need to retain the Senate. Regardless of what happens to the House, another four-to-eight years of Democratic control of the Presidency promises a massive

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Posted in blue wall, Election 2016, Republican Party

How to end a party

This has been a tough few weeks for Republicans. Donald Trump is emerging as a far more complex threat to the party’s viability than most people had initially recognized, your humble blogger included. There remains almost no possibility that the

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Posted in blue wall, Election 2016, Republican Party

Georgia as a swing state

Georgia was a fat disappointment for Democrats in 2014. Years of demographic transformation seemed to be opening new opportunities. A dominant bloc of aging white conservatives that had recently pivoted from the Democratic Party to the GOP appeared to be

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Posted in blue wall

Nate Silver and the Blue Wall

After predicting the outcomes of the 2008 and 2012 Presidential Elections with remarkable foresight and clarity, Nate Silver has examined the “Blue Wall.” His conclusion – it does not exist. Back in November I argued that the 2014 Election results

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Posted in Election 2016

Exploring the Blue Wall: New Hampshire

New Hampshire appears to have moved solidly behind the Blue Wall. Despite the small number of electoral votes at stake, this is a pretty disturbing development. New Hampshire is not like California or Virginia. The state hasn’t changed much in

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Posted in Election 2016

Scott Walker faces the Blue Wall

In the prevailing campaign narrative, we are supposed to believe that Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker is uniquely electable because of his success in a solidly blue state. Instead of demonstrating a Republican path to the White House, the Walker campaign

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Posted in Civil Rights, Election 2016, Neo-Confederate, Tea Party

Northern states are not turning purple

Dave Weigel posted an excellent piece this morning explaining one of the red herrings from the ’14 election results – victories by Republican Gubernatorial candidates in solidly blue states. He focuses in on Larry Hogan’s win in Maryland, but the

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Posted in Election 2016
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