Why I live in a white neighborhood

elmhurst“Don’t take this the wrong way, but you sound like you’re a white guy.”

In her clipped, Back of the Yards accent, our realtor began to communicate her concerns about our initial choice of neighborhoods. We were about to get a lesson in Chicago house-hunting that would take years to fully absorb.

We tend to think of racism purely in terms of personal bigotry. That distortion makes it difficult for us to recognize institutional racism in action. A racist system can produce an unjust outcome without active assistance from bigots. Racism without racists continues to dampen economic outcomes for black families long after everyone has forgotten the original logic behind those institutions. Beyond the impact to minorities, those deep cultural forces help to explain the growing tension between upper and lower income whites. Understanding the Trump phenomenon might start by exploring how I came to live a white neighborhood.

Relocating from Houston, we had three weeks to pick a place to live in the Chicago area and no idea what we were doing. Needless to say, that unsettling call with our realtor did not quiet our nerves. Our realtor, let’s call her Rose, wanted to channel us toward the obvious landing point for an outsider with no ethnic connection to a particular Chicago neighborhood. She suggested distant suburbs like Naperville or Aurora and we balked. We weren’t moving our family a thousand miles from the familiar comforts of Houston just to live in a colder version of Katy. If we couldn’t live in Chicago itself then we wanted to live near enough that we could still experience it.

With the benefit of hindsight I better appreciate my realtor’s dilemma. We wanted to live in a safe, affordable, diverse neighborhood close to the city, featuring great public schools and first class infrastructure. In other words a fantasy town conjured from the imaginations of idealistic young idiots. Rose was fumbling for a means to explain the realities we faced without violating a code of silence around race.

Our realtor was a cog in a machine, playing her role as she understood it. On the second miserable day of searching we surrendered. We got everything else we wanted by giving up on diversity. As it turns out, that’s a wider compromise made by lots of Americans, with implications not just for black families but for lower income whites.

Social, economic and political forces too big for us to recognize processed our identity and nudged us toward the place we belonged: Elmhurst. For us, a well-educated, middle-income young white family with a promising future, that machine served our interests better than we could have imagined. It does not operate in such a benevolent fashion for everyone.

When we discuss racial issues in the US we often personify the forces involved, describing the actions, choices, or opinions of certain groups as though they were the product of conscious deliberation. Those characterizations may be accurate as a summary of an entire group’s attitudes or behaviors, in the same way that many ingredients result in a single stew. However, very few individuals consciously recognize their relationships to those aggregates. Ask an Elmhurst resident why they decided to live in a “white’s-only” neighborhood and you might face some hostility as they correct your assumptions.

A more accurate picture emerges when we recognize that these wider cultural and political tides operate more like evolutionary forces, far less deliberate or intentional than we generally expect. Institutions, operating with uncritical support, can take on a will of their own. You don’t have to be racist to live in a white neighborhood, but willful blindness will certainly make it more comfortable.

Becoming conscious of the ways our individual choices impact our collective reality is a necessary prelude to achieving any deliberate political outcome. The white neighborhood in which I chose to raise my family is not white because of pointy hoods or burning crosses. No laws prevent a minority family from moving here. Its character rose from ordinary people making choices that served their interests inside a system shaped by centuries of racist attitudes.

There have been no landmark moments in the desegregation of Elmhurst, or of DuPage County. No laws had to be challenged to make it possible for African-Americans or other minorities to live here. Our Elmhurst History Museum preserves a photograph from the 1930’s of our semi-pro football team. That team included a black player, but there is no mention of whether he was the first or whether that was unusual. It doesn’t seem to have been meaningful enough to warrant any comment at all. The relatively powerful racial segregation that exists here, as in most Northern cities, was not created or enforced by hooded thugs. Segregation rose from larger forces.

Elmhurst and the county around it took its present character from the block-busting campaigns of the post-war era. The practice and its implications deserve a longer description, laid out at this link. There was no need for Jim Crow-style laws to explicitly prohibit black families from purchasing homes in Elmhurst during the post-war boom. The machine took care of that.

Until the late 80’s no realtor who valued their job would share listings in the white suburbs with African-Americans or post them in places that black families might see. The kind of sorting I experienced in 2004 as a “white guy” with access to Internet listings was relatively benign, but still powerful. In previous decades that machine was nearly impenetrable. If a black family with the available income was able to find a home for sale in Elmhurst they still couldn’t get a mortgage. To live here, they would have needed extraordinary will, income and luck. That simply couldn’t happen on a meaningful scale.

Towns like ours were built in layers, first by generations of open racial discrimination in housing, then by block busting, and finally by the concentration of wealth as more affluent whites carved themselves out from the wider community. Perhaps no one intended to build a machine that would sort people into charming pockets of affluence like Elmhurst and desperate neighborhoods burdened by blight. Yet that’s what the rules of the game rewarded, so that’s what we got.

The fate of blue-collar white towns like Maywood, torn apart by blockbusting, steadily drove up real estate values in places like Hinsdale, Western Springs and Elmhurst. These villages managed by virtue of distance from the city, political organization, and higher cost, to retain de facto racial segregation. As the process advanced, minority families weren’t the only ones locked out. Those towns became almost impenetrable to middle income whites, not just financially but culturally.

In the past couple of decades, as overt racism became unacceptable politically, whiteness mattered less and less. Middle and lower income whites saw the protections they once enjoyed from a shared identity with wealthier whites slipping away. By the time I moved to Chicago in 2004, sounding “like a white guy” still mattered, but only if you could write a check to back it up. By that time places like Elmhurst had taken on their unique character and no one remembered why.

With money, you can still buy your way into a sheltered world of white privilege. In fact, by paying an additional premium that few can afford, minority families can now gain access as well. That premium is steep. White, black, brown or purple, if your family did not build up capital in an era when whites enjoyed explicitly protected status, you probably will not raise your children in Elmhurst. As access to the economic ladder comes to be increasingly defined by education, the consequences of residential segregation worsen.

Mitt Romney accidentally described the shape of this problem in his 2012 campaign. Now that laws openly favoring white economic interests have been stripped from the system, everyone is free to achieve on equal terms. Romney described how this brave new world operates, suggested anyone can be successful if they just had the gumption to borrow $20,000 from their parents and launch a venture.

America has responded to centuries of white supremacy with a new “colorblind” strategy. Explicit racial preferences are being stripped away, but whatever capital families accumulated while those protections were in place is considered “earned.” Looking for a way to make a living? Just borrow tens of thousands of dollars from your parents. Your parents don’t have that kind of money? Why not?

Black families have been pointing out the flaws in our colorblind aspirations for decades. Lower income whites are only just waking up to the ruse. As wealthier white families retreat into places like Elmhurst and roll up the ladders, race-based protections that once shielded working families from the impact of their lower incomes are disappearing.

Here’s a dirty secret about life in America’s white islands. The income it takes to continue living here is far less than the income you’ll need to get here in the first place. Paying a mortgage requires an income. Getting a mortgage requires capital. Where does a couple with small children in their early 30’s get the capital to live in a place like this? Few get it from their work alone.

That explains why the places that were solidly white 25 years ago are still solidly white today, even after our explicit racial preferences were repealed. For those who had help from parents to finance college, and then “borrowed” just $20-30K from family for a down payment on a “starter-home,” getting to Elmhurst is not a stretch.

Conversely, if you borrowed all or most of your tuition and had to accumulate a down payment in cash on your own to buy your first home, no matter how successful you are in your career it is unlikely that you will ever live in Elmhurst or a place like it. By the time you climb those mountains, your life will probably already be established somewhere.

How many young minority families started their lives with the kind of family capital enjoyed by white peers, even their “middle class” white peers? Virtually none. The additional cost, hassle, and transition involved, along with the absence of ties to those wealthier places means an overwhelming majority will stay put even if their incomes rise over their lifetimes. Thanks to its pedigree, Elmhurst stays white more or less in perpetuity without the need for any discriminatory laws.

No one stands guard to prevent “the wrong people” from living here. In a cringe-worthy irony neighbors occasionally complain about the absence of diversity. A machine we choose not to see and virtually never question makes this place what it is and keeps it this way. With few exceptions, these enclaves are the preserve of those who benefited most from centuries of white supremacy. For the most part, we don’t even know it.

This might not matter but for one vital twist. Access to a nice neighborhood is not merely a question of living in a fine home. In fact, in many of these elite neighborhoods your home will be far less impressive than those available at cut-rate prices in a distant exurb. No one comes here to buy a house. We are buying a membership.

An emerging knowledge economy is spawning a new aristocracy of education. Earning the mere chance to compete means capitalizing on educational opportunities early. These white islands are educational incubators.

With a few notable exceptions, education in America is a local enterprise. When Chicago’s most affluent white families fled into these elite suburbs, they took their resources with them. Their capital now fuels educational dynamos. In our newly colorblind society we are all equal, but some are still more equal than others. Having early access to one of these supercells may not guarantee future success, but it makes that kind of success an assumption rather than a stretch.

Our personal choice of neighborhood meant that unlike many middle-income families, black, white or purple, my family was able to ride the slipstream of wealthier whites as they pulled away from everyone else. As a consequence of those ties, the capital we have accumulated has been magnified at a level that whites at lower incomes and minority families do not experience. In this neighborhood, our income buys us access to benefits we could not otherwise afford.

We spend practically nothing on security. Our children have access to some of the best educational and social opportunities that exist. Our investment in a house, thanks to the invisible and unspoken membership it includes, appreciates consistently at a level we would not have experienced in a less affluent block. The implications of this choice were not obvious to me when we moved here. It might never have been clear to me at a conscious level if I hadn’t been too curious for my own good. None of us have to recognize the machinery at work in order to benefit from it.

Our colorblind settlement of years of racial discrimination produced some strange outcomes. A world of apparent racial equity made places like Elmhurst wealthier and as white as ever. For whites just slightly farther down the income scale, the end of racial segregation led to some very different outcomes.

Unable to attach themselves to wealthier whites, this new era of racial “equity” meant they experienced a new opportunity to be treated more or less the same as minorities. The energy behind Donald Trump and Ted Cruz boils down to one critical dynamic – for blue collar whites, the growth of pluralism offers nothing but the chance to share a common fate with black Americans. There is a quiet, functional dimension to racism in America that promises to be far more persistent than mere personal bigotry and much more painful to dismantle.

Why do I live in a white neighborhood? I live here for much the same reason as everyone else up and down the street. A deeply racist history and culture shaped the landscape over hundreds of years to make this the most attractive option for those who can afford it. The conditions that created this place are no longer visible. Yet, like the glacier that carved out Lake Michigan, this history still impacts our lives.

Racially enlightened liberals may sneer at the bigotry of blue-collar voters, but no one seems concerned that New York’s solidly Democratic Westchester County is so strangely white. America is flirting with the promise of authentic pluralism, but like a plane pushing at the sound barrier, invisible forces are pushing back.

We will not achieve the powerful benefits of pluralism on the cheap. Cruz or Trump may fail to win the White House, but demagogues will continue to resonate with struggling whites as their protections fall away. Ironically, failed racist activism by those at lower income levels may be the force that compels us to recognize how white privilege still shields the wealthy and limits broader opportunity.

White voters disadvantaged by our “color-blind” approach to racial justice might finally provide the political energy to question this arrangement. Martin Luther King once dared to believe that lower income whites might recognize common interests across racial lines. If we understand how I came to live in a white neighborhood, will that insight give us the vision and willingness to build something better? Will we ever be able to see far enough beyond our personal needs, to recognize the broader wealth that a more just society could generate?

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Posted in Civil Rights, Economics, Uncategorized

Sympathy for the (blue-eyed) devil

Kentucky voters who supported Republican Matt Bevin in his race for Governor began to recognize a sickening reality in the weeks after the election. Many of them had effectively voted away their access to health care.

Stories about these voters took on a consistently hostile tone, criticizing their foolish vulnerability to racist appeals. That reaction is not only unfair, but deeply counter-productive. White Americans, especially those dependent on disappearing blue-collar jobs for their livelihood are not voting against their interests when they respond to racially-tinged populist appeals. Until we understand the concrete, structural significance of white supremacy to our economy and our political order we will continue to be baffled by the behavior of millions of influential white voters.

Late in his life, Dr. Martin Luther King began to shift the focus of his work beyond race toward poverty. King held out the charitable belief that elevating the awareness of lower income whites to their condition might offer a pathway to a post-racial coalition among America’s lower-earners. He described his insights in a 1968 sermon, centered on his conversations with police while he was jailed in Birmingham. Here’s a digest of his comments on that interaction:

“And when those brothers told me what they were earning, I said, “Now, you know what? You ought to be marching with us. You’re just as poor as Negroes.” And I said, “You are put in the position of supporting your oppressor, because through prejudice and blindness, you fail to see that the same forces that oppress Negroes in American society oppress poor white people. And all you are living on is the satisfaction of your skin being white, and the drum major instinct of thinking that you are somebody big because you are white.”

As he was wont to do, King spread a Hallmark-card sheen on that interaction, but his jailers did not set him free. They did not join hands with him. They did not march by his side then or at any time after.

For all his many insights, King seems to have failed to perceive what professor Derrick Bell would describe thirty years later. In the strictest sense, blue collar white workers were not voting against their interest by supporting racist politicians. They were rallying around their last tie to a form of racial solidarity that for centuries had delivered meaningful, material rewards. Voters in the Kentucky counties most desperately dependent on the welfare state voted overwhelmingly for Romney in 2012 and elected a Tea Party extremist Governor in 2015. By the same logic, that cohort of voters is flocking to Donald Trump and ignoring Bernie Sanders.

The material rewards of racism are as real as the bars that separated King from his jailers. On one side were men who held secure government jobs for life. Though their incomes were modest, they enjoyed guaranteed health care and a pension. The machinery of a deeply oppressive system was calibrated to spare them from its most violent tendencies. Those men saw (and sometimes meted out) the worst abuses that system could deliver. By virtue of the racial heritage they shared with wealthier whites, they enjoyed a thin, but vital degree of protection. Those jailers held down government jobs with pensions for one reason and one reason only – their skin color. And they knew it.

On the other side of the bars were men with few economic prospects, despised, and subjected to relentless oppression, humiliation and violence. The only crime those prisoners had committed was their defiance of white supremacy. King’s jailers recognized that race was the only force keeping them outside that cage. They feared what would happen to them if black citizens were given equal treatment. Many white voters continue to see that same potential in the growth of a post-racial America, their last tie to their modest collection of privileges cut, the last advantages and protections of their race terminated. White support for the likes of Donald Trump or Ted Cruz emerges from a terrible logic that we ignore at our peril.

In King’s lifetime we were already experiencing the dawn of a new global capitalist order, bringing with it innovation, prosperity and disruption on an unprecedented scale. For all our present angst about income inequality, the trend toward extreme outcomes we see today was already in motion by the late 50’s. An economy built more on talent than on muscle respects only one color – green. Racial preferences were standing in the way of a new world of profit. King had a potent ally he never recognized.

As the knowledge economy shifts into second gear it is fueling greater and greater variation in incomes. Those with the education, positioning and drive to get in the game have a chance to reap inordinately large payoffs. Those who do not compete successfully get less than in the past. It is an economy of extremes. That thick layer of predictable, middle income jobs is thinning steadily.

An obvious solution might be to deliver a basic level of income and lifestyle for everyone, without regard for old concerns about “need.” Pay for it with taxes on the higher earners who made it into the express lanes of the knowledge economy. Those who want to reap the rewards of the knowledge economy will be free to do so. Those who either don’t want that high-pressure, high-speed lifestyle, or for some reason cannot perform there, will be prevented from falling into penury.

One glaring political problem blocks this move. A large minority of US voters who might seem like the prime beneficiaries of this reform are determined not to go there. Lower income whites, especially in the South, are not interested in a new deal. They want to restore the old one.

Under the old deal, white men got preferential access to all of the best jobs available. Generations of white families earned their living in the fire or police departments, or worked in road construction, sanitation, or public works. Sons worked alongside fathers in union jobs at a local factory. They had every reason to expect that their children would have a chance to follow in the family tradition.

Global capitalism and the rise of the knowledge economy destroyed that simple, yet dignified way of life. As the demands of competition intensified, political will behind generations of racial preferences broke down. Race and gender-based protections for whites weakened or melted away.

Economic outcomes for those who earned an education, moved to big cities, and poured themselves into an exciting and demanding competition bloomed. Capitalism drove down the price of practically everything except for the labor of a smart, talented, educated human being. Salaries for educated professionals exceed anything broadly available just a generation ago while the range of products and services available for that money has exploded. For many, this is a bright new age of wonder, defined by affluence, freedom and seemingly endless potential.

Those who had hoped to join their uncles at the assembly line, in local government or public service jobs found fewer options available. Most importantly, in political terms they faced fresh competition from those who had been locked out of those roles in the past. People who, from their perspective, were the most American Americans, found their relative lifestyles dented, unable to achieve the economic security a previous generation of blue collar whites took for granted. Meanwhile, for all their continuing struggles, minority families have seen their relative incomes and well-being improve.

Whites with a college education and a chance to earn a living in a professional or technical field seldom have more than a distant attachment to racism, varying by how much they’ve learned or how much exposure they’ve had to a wider world. For those who come from a blue-collar tradition, especially manufacturing, mining or public service families, this new world is a rapidly unfolding catastrophe. They aren’t just falling behind, they are dying off.

Expanded access to Medicaid isn’t merely a poor compensation for what they’ve lost, it’s a stinging insult. White racial solidarity across income levels cannot be dismissed as a sentimental attachment, an opiate for the white masses. It has always been a cornerstone of their well-being. From the perspective of blue collar workers, affluent whites pushing “political correctness” or “diversity” are traitors. Having climbed the ladder they are sawing off the bottom rungs.

What the Trumps and Cruz’s of the world offer these voters is a chance to put the genie back in the bottle. They want to restore an America that reserves its bounty for “good, hard-working” white people, where women know their place and behave as humble, modest women should. Where a white man doesn’t need to slog through years of “socialist indoctrination” at some godless university to earn a chance at honest work. They offer a government that will ‘take my country back’ blocking a mythical wave of greedy newcomers who haven’t earned their place from stealing what little is left over after the wealthy take their share. They promise to put “uppity” minorities in their place, suppressing the supposed wave of crime and general thievery perpetrated by lesser races who would steal from the more deserving.

Want to convince lower income white Americans that they are voting against their interests? Explain how you can offer them something better than white supremacy. When we understand what white supremacy actually delivered for these folks, the scale of our challenge in building a just post-racial society becomes evident.

Perhaps King failed to recognize the depth of the challenge he faced in trying to forge an alliance with lower income whites. That said King didn’t become an American secular saint by setting modest goals. No one who is serious about challenging racism in America should ignore the structural, functional importance of bigotry.

With that obstacle squarely in sight the power of our Goliath becomes clear. So does his weakness. King always insisted that peace was inseparable from justice. Once we recognize that racism in America is more than just a moral compromise or a product of ignorance, we start to see the flaw in our efforts to date. Our approach to racism over the past forty years has placed the bill for white supremacy at the feet of the white families who benefited least. Affluent whites have walked away and retained their accumulated rewards.

Until we address this imbalance we will continue to be hounded by populist politicians profiting from fear and hate. The longer we ignore the problem, the more powerful will be our reckoning. This devil will have his due.

Posted in Uncategorized

Race and the ‘Middle Class’

Many governments have been founded upon the principle of the subordination and serfdom of certain classes…Our system commits no such violation of nature’s laws…With us, all of the white race, however high or low, rich or poor, are equal in the eye of the law.
Alexander Stevens on the Confederate Constitution, 1861

Well down here, they see things a little differently…people down here feel that some things are worth killing for.
Agent Monk (Gene Hackman), from Mississippi Burning

Slavery is, as an example of what white America has done, a constant reminder of what white America might do.
Derrick Bell, Faces at the Bottom of the Well

For much of our history, those who fought to free America from racial bigotry were animated by a common idea. They saw racism as a glitch, a bug in our collective software, rooted in our heritage of slavery, inspired by ignorance, and exorcised by the light of reason. As such, racism could be moved to the margins of society through legal action and education until it might one day be eradicated.

In the decades after the Civil Rights Acts, a new pessimism began to spread in some quarters. Faced with what seemed like slow progress on the ground, some began to question the assumptions that inspired previous generations of activists. Harvard law professor Derrick Bell perhaps best articulated this alternative theory of America’s racial dilemma.

What Bell recognized, and missed, in his picture of American race relations resonates now in the rise of Donald Trump, Ted Cruz, and an increasingly unapologetic white nationalist movement on the right. Bell’s work deserves a much closer look as we ponder how to adapt to the surprisingly explosive challenges posed by the decline of white supremacy.

With Faces at the Bottom of the Well: The Permanence of Racism, published in 1992, Bell described an alternative to the prevailing narrative on race. He focused on two interlocking conclusions. First, racism in American culture and politics is not bug, but a feature. It was wired into the American experience at birth and plays a vital role in sustaining our unique approach to democracy. Bell argues that this first premise dictates the second, that racial discrimination in American culture is permanent and immutable.

Communicating this idea requires more than a one or two-sentence quote. Here are some relevant passages from Faces:

The critically important stabilizing role that blacks play in this society constitutes a major barrier in the way of achieving racial equality…Whites are rallied on the basis of racial pride and patriotism to accept their often lowly lot in life, and encouraged to vent their frustration by opposing any serious advancement by blacks. Crucial to this situation is the unstated understanding by the mass of whites that they will accept large disparities in economic opportunity in respect to other whites as long as they have a priority over blacks and other people of color for access to the few opportunities available…

The permanence of this “symbiosis” ensures that civil rights gains will be temporary and setbacks inevitable. Consider: In this last decade of the twentieth century, color determines the social and economic status of all African Americans, both those who have been highly successful and their poverty- bound brethren whose lives are grounded in misery and despair…

I want to set forth this proposition, which will be easier to reject than refute: Black people will never gain full equality in this country. Even those herculean efforts we hail as successful will produce no more than temporary “peaks of progress,” short-lived victories that slide into irrelevance as racial patterns adapt in ways that maintain white dominance. This is a hard-to-accept fact that all history verifies. We must acknowledge it, not as a sign of submission, but as an act of ultimate defiance.

We identify with and hail as hero the man or woman willing to face even death without flinching. Why? Because, while no one escapes death, those who conquer their dread of it are freed to live more fully. In similar fashion, African Americans must confront and conquer the otherwise deadening reality of our permanent subordinate status. Only in this way can we prevent ourselves from being dragged down by society’s racial hostility. Beyond survival lies the potential to perceive more clearly both a reason and the means for further struggle.

Bell’s assessment was pretty glum, initially inspiring heated resistance at both ends of the political spectrum. Recent developments strongly suggest that the picture he paints of American racism was, at least in a sense, far too pessimistic. Unfortunately, discovering that Derrick Bell was only half-wrong is an introduction to a much more troubling epoch ahead.

Americans often think of race as though it were real, a concrete biological status, a fact of nature. Bell’s analysis forces us to look past race as a condition and instead recognize it as a concept defined by a function it performs. Biases and prejudices related to heritage, tribe, language, religion and other factors are a universal human condition every culture must manage. Race, as it is experienced here, is a uniquely American notion. “Black” and “white” as we understand them are concepts invented here to preserve a slave economy in an otherwise free society.

Here’s a strangely hopeful and yet terribly dangerous possibility. Race as an organizing principle in our culture is weakening and perhaps even dying. A younger generation born after the death of Jim Crow has increasingly little sense of “whiteness” compared to their ancestors, so little in fact that race is ceasing to function for a majority of them as a pillar of political organization. Bell may actually have been wrong about the permanence of racism in the US – and that may give rise to a frightening problem.

Happy as we might be to prove Bell wrong on the permanence of racism, he nonetheless seems to have been right about the centrality of race to our political order. Our slowly advancing success in the battle to dismantle white supremacy is weakening load-bearing walls in our democracy. Alliances that held together our uniquely “classless” political/economic system have been rendered meaningless by the decline of racism as legitimate political expression. We have not yet figured out how to replace the functions that racism performed in making America operate effectively.

This problem is most apparent in the decline of our so-called “Middle Class.” Observers from elsewhere in the world are almost as baffled by our middle class myth as they are by our racial complexities. Millionaire politicians and construction workers are “middle class.” College professors and postal workers are “middle class.” Everyone who works for a living, or worked for a living at one point in life, regards themselves and each other as “middle class” no matter how obviously wealthy, poor, or disadvantaged they are – so long as they are white or want to identify with whites. In America, “middle class” simply means “us.”

Some point to income or wealth concentration to explain current American middle class angst, but that concentration is not new. Incomes and wealth have been moving toward the extremes since the end of the World War II era. If anything, those statistics paint a hopeful picture as the number of people gaining ground, especially in recent years far exceeds those declining.

Voters on the left have always worried about income inequality. Sanders’ fans in a different era worried just as much about the supposed unfairness of Kennedy’s tax cuts as they did about Reagan’s or Bush’s. What’s new is concern about income fairness on the political right. That concern has nothing to do with income inequality per se. The right has discovered a new interest in fairness because of who is benefiting from this economy. Dig into the numbers and the real source of angst becomes clear. Conservatives are not concerned about families losing ground, they are concerned about which families are losing ground.

A far more open, free, competitive and dynamic economy is opening up opportunity for the first time to minority families. Despite the significant headwinds and setbacks, it is those families who are capitalizing on this chance to move up in relative terms. The only demographic group losing ground in absolute terms is lower-income, mostly rural whites with little education. This, along with a black President, is the only new or recent development in our sixty year trend toward income inequality. It isn’t hard to understand what white voters mean when they howl their determination to “take our country back.”

A vast expansion of freedom and wealth spawned by global capitalism is remaking economies and cultures all over the world. Here in America those forces are slowly crushing an old order that reserved special protections for a large class of people on the basis of racial identity and at the expense of racial minorities. Race itself is breaking down as a means of defining identity. The decline of this racial order is a happy development, so hopeful and promising that many smart, insightful thinkers until recently thought it might be impossible.

For two centuries, America stunted class conflicts by channeling the frustrations of lower-income voters into racial discrimination. The brazen quote from Confederate Vice-President Alexander Stevens cited above sums up the formula for American racial unity. Less fortunate whites, locked out of access to opportunity, were persuaded to lay down their lives to protect wealthy slave holders in exchange for the borrowed dignity of an ersatz “whiteness” and a collection of small-scale economic preferences set aside for them alone. That same maneuver succeeded over and over in American history to paste over resource conflicts that might otherwise have had a very different outcome. Imagine, for example, if blacks had been allowed to participate in the 19th century labor movement.

That logic of whiteness was not unique to the Southern states. To varying degrees around the country it prevailed to form the core of a common American identity. Remove the dignity and privilege that has always accompanied a white identity in America you will have to replace it with something – quickly. In a morally complex sense, less advantaged white Americans have a valid point about the unfairness of this emerging order. They are, in a very real sense, writing the check that pays for a more just and prosperous society for everyone else. More on that to come.

Every new achievement brings fresh evolutionary challenges in its wake. The problems we face now are in some sense enviable, but we need to work fast to capitalize on their promise. We desperately need to build a new template for American representative government before the roof of the old one crashes down on our heads.

 

History’s best explanation of the role and persistence of racism, the definitive clip from the film Mississippi Burning:

Posted in Uncategorized

1957

elvisIn quiet suburbs white children played on the lawn with Hula Hoops and Slinkies. Teenagers visited the soda shop for a chaste night out. Mothers had dinner on the table when dad came home from work. Elvis Presley and Marilyn Monroe were the most scandalous influences in popular culture. Even terrorism was relatively wholesome, the near-exclusive preserve of good Catholic boys in Ireland.

The year 1957 is important for reasons that extend beyond our soft-focused nostalgia. It marked an empirical high point in the history of America’s Middle Class. That was the year when the percentage of national income taken home by middle-earners peaked. Since that time incomes in America have been relentlessly drifting toward the ends of the spectrum.

Were we better off as a country in an era of relative middle-income equality? Establishing some common ground for comparison among eras is as difficult as making comparisons across cultures. In the end, as in any assessment of values, subjective factors will tend to prevail. We can, though, establish a few empirical markers. One of the simplest comes from comparing our almost mythical imagination of 50’s middle class buying power to our present experience.

Looking at published prices and known typical incomes from that period we can establish a loose baseline against inflation. Here’s what common incomes looked like in inflation-adjusted terms from 1957.

In 1955 (it’s tough to get good data for one year in particular), average earnings in the nation’s most lucrative manufacturing center, Detroit (taken from the book Ford: Decline and Rebirth) were about $75 a week, or a little over $30,000 a year today.

The highest-paid blue-collar workers in the world in the 1950’s were Ford’s Detroit (actually Dearborn) assembly line workers. In 1955, his average weekly wage was $106, or about $45,000 a year in today’s terms, above the national median of about $40,000. Those relatively well-paid blue-collar workers were almost entirely white and male, thanks to government and union policies that kept them that way. Median incomes today come in around $52,000.

Most blue-collar families in 1957 took home earnings around $1.25/hour, a little less than $10/hour today. For reference, that’s what you’d earn as a barista, where you will never be run over by a fork lift or fall in a vat of boiling steel. And they generally had larger families than would be common today.

In the golden age of middle-income work, relatively few workers blue collar or white, earned as much in inflation-adjusted terms as a store manager at Chipotle today (about $55K). Your job was probably dirty, painful, dangerous, and shortened your lifespan while polluting the community around you.

But what about all the glorious things you could purchase with your modest earnings in 1957? Almost everything cost more than today, and in most cases cost vastly more. The first challenge is merely to find comparisons, since most of the things we take for granted now were not available in 1957 at any price.

Here’s a list of items available in 1957 with their present, inflation-adjusted costs:

$2,500-$4,000: A clothes washer and drier
$150: An electric can opener
$2,100-4,000: 24″ black and white TV (and you better know a good repairman, cause you’re gonna need him)
$600: An FM radio
$675: A record player
$7.50: A single record with a B-side track
$50: A pair of children’s shoes
$2.60: A gallon of gasoline
$125: A child’s tricycle
$1,700: A window-mounted air conditioning unit
$11: A mens haircut
$50: A ten minute phone conversation with Grandma in the next state.

$18,000: Base model of the most popular car in ’57, the Ford Fairlane. It had standard transmission, no power steering or brakes, no air conditioning, an AM radio and no seat belts. Interestingly, the price of a modest car is still almost exactly same as it has always been even though the value built into new models has skyrocketed.

Here are a few things you couldn’t have at all in 1957: a home with central air conditioning, a large library of recorded music, an affordable means to communicate quickly with people at a distance, accurate information about sex or birth control, effective treatment for almost any ailment not caused by bacteria or an accidental injury, a no-fault divorce or a safe, legal abortion.

If you were black or a single woman, there were a few additional things you couldn’t have, including a mortgage, admission to most universities, a job in most of the country’s unions, or a government job in any but the most menial or humiliating positions outside the military or the Postal Service.

There were a few notable things that were cheaper in 1957 than they are today. One of those pretty new homes in the suburbs would rarely cost more than $80,000. That house price hides some important financing details that help explain the low top-line cost. Mortgages were generally for 15 years with rates around 5%. More importantly, a buyer usually needed a cash down-payment of at least 25-40%. That helps explain why even at lower prices, home ownership rates were only just over 50%.

Also notable were the lower cost of health care and higher education. A year of tuition and fees at the University of Pennsylvania was only $17,000 and people spent barely a quarter as much on health care. There are a few obvious explanations for the cheaper price of both in the relative quality of what you were buying. There was almost nothing that your family doctor could do for you in 1957 that isn’t done by a nurse today. If you had any ailment more serious than a laceration, broken bone, or bacterial infection there was almost no treatment available at any price.

And as for college, there wasn’t a university in the country in 1957 that could teach a fraction of what a student learns in a decent modern high school. Comparing these activities across time is difficult, but that still doesn’t account for the most powerful cost differential between these eras.

What we notice most of all in the difference between what is cheaper or more expensive in comparison to 1957 is revealed in the price of one mundane item: a haircut. Your haircut is actually slightly more expensive on average now than it was then for reasons that explain most of the rest of sixty years of price shifts. What was cheaper in 1957 than now? People.

Everything that requires the skilled attention of a human being is more expensive now that it was at the peak of the middle class era. That extends from education through medicine down to your weekly trim.

What makes our economy now so much more promising than in previous generations is the value we have come to place on people, especially people who have developed a unique skill. That is also what makes this economy so much more consistently uneven in its outcomes.

As we grow more concerned about the impact of income inequality it is important that we not lose focus on the other side of the ledger. The same forces that have fed more dynamic economic outcomes have brought us a new world of value. Our products and services are cheaper, safer, of higher quality, and produced in a more environmentally sensitive manner than ever before. Our economy is also more open to the contributions of people who were excluded in the past. We have accomplished a great deal worth preserving and continuing.

In particular, whatever we do in address concerns about rising inequality should avoid stunting one of the most promising developments of modern capitalism – the ability to capitalize labor – using education and talent to earn capital-style returns on one’s work. Navigating this challenge might be easier if we could resist our urge toward nostalgia. Our past was not better than our present. When we glorify it, we imperil our future.

***

A few sources which are also endless fun for a history nerd:

http://www.thepeoplehistory.com/1950s.html

http://www.loti.com/

http://www.courierpress.com/columnists/in-the-1950s-milk-cost-17-cents-a-car-was-700-ep-448679334-326553411.html

http://www.livinghistoryfarm.org/farminginthe50s/money_01.html

Inflation calculator from the Bureau of Labor Statistics

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Posted in Economics, Uncategorized

Income Inequality: Missing the Big Picture

pocAcross a large swath of both the left and right this notion has become so accepted that it is treated as self-evident: a tiny percentage of very rich Americans are reaping all the rewards of global capitalism while the rest of the country sees their lifestyles and hopes decline. As is so often the case with a convenient political narrative, the data doesn’t add up.

Our inequality narrative has moved beyond critique. That’s unfortunate, because this tale is just true enough to be convincing and just false enough to pose a threat to our future. What is happening to the great economic middle is far more complex than our simplistic 1% myth. Monsters hide in those details.

Widely reported research released this week by the Pew Center reinforced these misconceptions. It shouldn’t have. Beneath the study’s headline touting a declining “middle class” lies data that points to a far more complex and promising reality. Consistent with a previous post here on the end of the Middle Class Era, and analysis in the book The Politics of Crazy, we seem to be missing a hopeful economic transformation. Only the shadow cast by that trend is evident in income data.

Key to our income concentration myth is a collection of gaps and complexities in our available data that make it difficult to build an accurate picture of income trends. We get our best information about household income from two sources, aggregate tax returns from the IRS and surveys made available by the Census Bureau. Each source is reliable for certain purposes while burdened with their own unique glitches. Our misconceptions about income trends rise mostly from mismatches between those two sources.

Data from tax returns creates one of our most persistent and frustrating distortions. Though aggregate tax records give us a more precise account of income than survey data can provide, not everyone files a tax return and there are many complex forms of earnings that do not compare easily to ordinary income as reported on a W-2.

Worse, tax records only allow us to measure incomes anonymously and in annualized slices. These annual aggregates do not allow us to follow a particular household over time. Our temptation to paste over the gap in our knowledge with assumptions of income persistence or income predictability has been too enticing to resist. It turns out that the persistence we assume in the data does not exist in reality.

Survey data helps augment our understanding by allowing researchers to paint a richer picture beyond IRS-reporting income data. It also introduces a time dimension missing from tax returns. This is helpful, but data gathered in surveys can never match the precision of income tax statistics. People are rarely aware of their income in precise, reliable terms, making it impossible to overlay the Census surveys with IRS aggregates. As a result, the value of Census data is mostly limited to the picture it paints of respondents’ perceptions of their own income trends. A critical look at these two data sources with an eye on their limitations exposes a very different picture of income inequality from the standard narrative.

Between these two sources of data, here’s what we know reliably.

The share of national, annual income going to the middle quintile of earners is in long-term, steady decline. That decline did not start with the Reagan tax cuts, or the Bush tax cuts, or the dawn of the Internet economy. Middle earners have been taking home a declining share of national income since 1957. That’s right, as soon as America began to recover from our Depression/World War 2 hangover the middle started to lose ground.

The share of national income going to the highest earners has been rising. That rise began in 1959, with higher income cohorts gaining ground inexorably at rates that have slowly increased over time. On an annual basis, more and more household incomes are falling at the farther ends of the spectrum. Fewer households are earning salaries in the middle percentiles.

Survey data from the Census, which informed the Pew study, augments our understanding of this phenomenon with a valuable insight. The number of American households earning middle incomes is no longer a majority. More importantly, the overwhelming bulk of Americans moving out of the middle income tier are moving up.

While it is true that our mythical “middle class” is gone, they have not been destroyed. On the contrary, they have advanced. They are steadily graduating up the income ladder to create a new cultural niche. Since 1971, the percentage of households in the top income tier has more than doubled while the number in the bottom has increased by only a quarter.

If this is true, then why does the doom-laden narrative on income inequality to continue to resonate all across the political spectrum? Though relatively few households are falling into poverty their racial composition and regional concentration makes them political dynamite. Blacks, Hispanics and women are all big winners in this economic shift along with almost everyone earning a college degree. Almost half of black families led by a married, middle-aged, college graduate are in the top income tier. Those who have lost ground in relative terms are overwhelmingly white, poorly educated, and rural – a matter for a much longer, more difficult post.

Our perception of this situation might be more hopeful if we could see past another distortion in our IRS income statistics that is only slightly adjusted in the survey data. In income terms, both of these taxpayers will be identified as poor: a single mother earning minimum wage at a fast food restaurant and a second-year law student at Duke. To make aggregate evaluations even more difficult, that law student has probably been sitting in the lowest income quintiles for several years and will continue to show up there for several more. She might take a year off after graduation to travel, and then spend another year living with her parents while doing free or poorly paid work for a global NGO. She might spend ten years contributing to our poverty statistics before starting her real career at age 30 earning $160K a year.

Similar distortions occur later in the career arc. A professional who left a salaried job to launch their own very successful business might register “income” in the lowest quintiles for several years. Once they start getting paid they might immediately soar into six figures, but our annual-only assessment of incomes will not capture this arc, nor account for the ways that wealth might augment income for those temporary low-earners.

At the late stages of the typical career arc this distortion becomes unusually strong. Incomes as measured in tax-accounting terms do not capture many of the methods by which retirees support themselves, especially capital gains and dividends. Those statistics also fail to account for subtle wealth effects, like the impact of a modest home with no mortgage or other reduced expense burdens rising from a lifetime of social and economic stability.

Studies are starting to demonstrate the ways that our changing career arc distorts our statistical understanding of income inequality. In income terms, there is no “1%” as a coherent social group any more than we still have a culturally relevant “middle class.” Almost no one reaches the 1% and stays there and a surprisingly large number of Americans will reach those income levels at some point in their careers.

Several recent studies have sought to track income fluidity. Their findings suggest that almost 12% of Americans will register a 1% income at least once in their career and a whopping three quarters will spend at least one year in the top 20%. More importantly, of those who reach the 1% income level, less than .5% will remain there for a consecutive decade.

Here’s an alternate narrative. It is more consistent with the data and better explains the way our economy is evolving. Thanks to expanded access to education and broader opportunities to use knowledge to earn a living, people start their careers later than ever before. Again thanks to the knowledge economy and improved access to education, those careers are fantastically more lucrative than anything people had access to thirty, forty or fifty years ago. As a result of higher pay and better working conditions, those careers are shorter than they ever were, meaning a much larger chunk of the population spends a large portion of their old age living primarily on sources other than taxable income.

These folks may not represent a majority of American workers, at least not yet, but they are a dominant and growing plurality. More Americans than ever before are graduating from high school. More Americans than ever before are completing college. Our new, more dynamic career arc is coming to define our economy in ways that challenge old understandings of success or failure. Those same forces are changing the meaning of a job.

When a plurality of the population has a career arc matching this pattern – late-starting careers, good incomes in the middle punctuated by occasionally “big-hit” years with ordinary W-2 incomes tailing off early, you get a pattern of average incomes looking exactly like what we see in our income statistics. Lots of people steadily concentrating at the lower incomes, increasingly few in the middle, and an increasingly large cohort showing up each year at the higher ends.

Growing income inequality on an annual basis is absolutely real, but it probably doesn’t mean quite what the Bernie Sanders crowd thinks. We do not have a monolithic bloc of 1%’ers dominating our economy. One of the reasons there is so little general support for radically redistributive policies is that those policies would negatively impact a far larger bloc of voters than their proponents imagine. Most people with a college degree are participating at some stage of their careers in the top tiers of the job market. Economic outcomes are far more dynamic, and improving at a far faster rate than the popular narrative would suggest.

Contrary to popular belief, the world is getting better. However, a significant chunk of the population is missing out on these benefits entirely. When we think of poverty and decline we often draw a mental picture of struggling minorities in our inner cities. Our focus on this outdated picture of poverty helps explain our inability to understand Donald Trump and the rise of the far right in America.

If we are going to develop political policies in line with measurable economic realities then this paradigm should change. Our income statistics and the Trump phenomenon together have a vital story to tell – economic decline is now primarily a white rural problem. We have misidentified the biggest winners and losers emerging from this stage of capitalism. Our politics and our public narrative need to adapt to this volatile emerging dynamic.

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Posted in Economics, Uncategorized

Link roundup, 12/18/15

I intended to put together a simple little post about the recent Pew Research Center report on the shrinking middle class, then I waded into the data. This is going to take more time and thought. So for now, here’s a summary of some interesting things happening in the world.

From the Southern Poverty Law Center: A very long and yet still incomplete account of white supremacist terror attacks in recent years

From the Washington Post: How mass transit options transform a neighborhood

From the Texas Tribune: Texas remains the national leader in number of uninsured citizens. And also, of course, in LIBERTY.

From the Washington Post: Vegetarian diets are not necessarily more “green”

From Quartz: A fun realization dawns on everyone who attempts any real genealogical research – Everyone is your cousin

From Aeon: On a related note, what should geneticists do when they uncover a family secret?

And since we’re on a role and many of us have some serious family time approaching, this PBS program with Dr. Henry Louis Gates called Finding Your Roots stumbled over both of those issues. The new season starts in January.

From the New York Times: Here’s a little sample of the controversy the show has inspired already. Some of those episodes are pretty tense.

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Link roundup, 12/15/15

From the Washington Post: This is what happens when the Arctic warms twice as fast as the rest of the plant

From the Basic Income Network: A detailed look at Finland’s plans to experiment with a basic income

From CNN: Could Trump run as an independent? Lots of maybes

From ScienceDaily: Old, but evergreen research result shows that terrorism makes us stupid

From the GOPLifer archives: Just in time for your Christmas Eve nativity scene, finding meaning in the contradictions between the two Christmas stories in the Bible

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Holiday book list

Maybe there’s a certain political nerd on your list this year, or you’re just looking for a good read over the holidays. Naturally, The Politics of Crazy should be at the top of your list for them, but here are a few other titles that either caught my attention this year or seem particularly timely.

NON-FICTION

charlesOur Man in Charleston: Britain’s Secret Agent in the Civil War South
Christopher Dickey

Assembled from the records of Robert Bunch, Britain’s Consul in Charleston in the Civil War era. Bunch grew fiercely opposed to slavery as his exposure to the practice deepened. Life in Charleston for a slavery opponent was delicate and at times dangerous, even for a representative of the crown. His observations of Southern politics are depressingly timely as some habits of delusion, racism, and propaganda just won’t die.

hamiltAlexander Hamilton
Ron Chernow

While Jefferson ran from combat and slept with his slave, Alexander Hamilton was busy being a badass in every conceivable manner. He learned economics at night while fighting with Washington’s army. He developed economic plans for the new Republic that eliminated a debt crisis and put the Northern states on the path to capitalism. He rescued new nation from a rebellion that nearly tore it apart. And he played the leading role in developing a Constitution that could allow the new country to survive. Chernow’s comprehensive biography of our most important founder is essential reading.

cottonLEmpire of Cotton: A Global History
Sven Beckert

How could a Republic built on the notion that all men are created equal sustain a slave economy for most of its history? Beckert takes a close look at the development stages of capitalism to find an answer. He uses cotton to illustrate how capitalism forces the evolution of the political cultures around it and how the needs of capitalism evolve with rising wealth. He also introduces the idea of “war capitalism” to describe that strange stage of semi-free market capitalism that marketed Southern states up to the end of Jim Crow.

zeroLCountdown to Zero-Day: Stuxnet and the Launch of the World’s First Digital Weapon
Kim Zetter

Across fifteen years of “war on terror” our most profound success remains little known and largely secret. Nevertheless, its impact casts a shadow over the future of our national security and war-fighting efforts, threatening to eliminate completely the boundary between combatants and non-combatants in global conflicts. Zetter manages to make a complex technical subject – the development and proliferation of digital weapons – remarkably accessible while telling a story that’s tough to put down.

secondThe Second Machine Age: Work, Progress and Prosperity in a Time of Brilliant Technologies
Erik Brynjolfsson & Andrew McAfee

Few of us seem to be aware of the ways that our technological development is outstripping our political and cultural evolution. The Second Machine helps explain why our world seems so much faster than in the past, why that’s a good thing, and what we need to do to adapt.

 

coatesBetween the World and Me
Ta-Nehisi Coates

Composed as an answer to James Baldwin’s 1963 work, The Fire Next Time, in many ways it seems more in the tradition of The Autobiography of Malcom X. Coates book has earned attention for its beautiful expressive prose delivered in an unapologetically grim and defiant tone. Beneath the surface sits a message that this blogger desperately wishes conservatives would recognize. Coates, like Malcolm X before him, is defining a black identity that is fundamentally conservative in nature. With its emphasis on independence and economic progress, Coates is quietly revealing an opportunity conservatives could seize if we could move past our deeply embedded racism. This is some of the best writing I read all year, absolutely brilliant.

FICTION

leftThe Leftovers
Tom Perrota

One day, with no warning, a global event occurs that shatters the credibility of both science and religion. Perrota has devised the perfect metaphor for the human condition in our era, where neither religion nor reason seems capable of providing a reliable basis for meaning. In The Leftovers, a sudden disappearance of a significant portion of the population, with no conceivable relationship to merit, faith, or theology and no scientific explanation leaves a population grieving and disoriented.

Most people muddle on more or less as before, but a creeping insanity lurks beneath the surface. Disruptive and sometimes dangerous cults emerge to fill the void. Tension between those struggling to go as they did before and those desperate to find meaning at any cost fray the social fabric of a small town, hinting at larger and more dangerous tensions in the wider world.

Perrota’s book is the basis of the brilliant and deeply unsettling HBO series which I highly recommend. Season two is particularly powerful and disturbing. And by the way, if you ever wondered why the Romans were so hostile toward early Christians, this book delivers a subtle and convincing answer.

sadSuper Sad True Love Story
Gary Shteyngart

This book becomes more relevant with each passing year. Shteyngart’s relentlessly and purposely vulgar take on the shallowness of Internet culture is darkly hilarious and prescient. It makes a fine counter-point to The Second Machine Age. If you like Vonnegut or Heller you’ll love Shteyngart. It’s as funny as Catch-22 or One Flew Over the Cuckoos Nest.

 

fliesLord of the Flies
William Golding

You probably had to read this in the 7th grade. In light of all that’s happened since, it might be a good idea to read it again. For decades George Orwell’s 1984 and Animal Farm defined our worst vision of what we might experience in the world. Turns out we should have paid more attention to Golding. Between Lord of the Flies and The Leftovers, we have everything we need to understand the global strategic threats we face in the world after Communism, from the Middle East to Mississippi.

 

 

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Now for some good news

Hearing Donald Trump blather on in a 24 hour repeating loop can be depressing, but don’t let it distract you. Far more important things are happening in the world beyond politics and they are fantastically hopeful. This is an amazing time to be alive and things keep getting better. Here are a few examples:

Engineers at Blue Origin have managed to land a rocket successfully.

Solar energy is hitting its tech-efficiency curve. Costs are plummeting, approaching parity with coal on utility scales.

Adjusted for inflation, gas prices haven’t been this low since the 60’s – and still clean energy is booming. Despite cheap fuel, the electric car business continues to experience spectacular sales growth and enormous new R&D investment.

Marijuana has been legal in Colorado for almost three years. Still waiting on the negative impacts. None are evident.

Contrary to popular belief, violent crime in the US has declined to a 40-year low and continues to taper off.

Fewer police officers died in the past few years than in any similar period in our history. Officer deaths are approaching new lows not seen for a century. We are becoming a remarkably mature and orderly society, with an urban life that has never been cleaner, safer, or more prosperous.

Abortion rates have dropped to their lowest level since the procedure was made universally legal. Increased access to contraception, improved sex education, and plummeting rates of teen pregnancy together fed the decline.

In a closely related dynamic, global birth rates are declining rapidly.

Development of Crispr-Cas9 has made human gene editing a practical medical treatment.

Next year engineers will be deploying the first major test of the “ocean cleanup array,” a cheap simple approach to removing garbage from the ocean’s gyres.

Nevermind the hot air, unless a Republican candidate in the US breaks sharply with the current racist tone of the party’s policies and rhetoric, the GOP nominee has no credible path to the White House in 2016 or beyond. The math just doesn’t work.

We are wired to see problems and keen to pick up bad news. Meanwhile the world keeps getting radically better at rates that would have been hard to believe just a lifetime ago. Chin up, this is a great time to be alive.

Posted in Uncategorized

The GOP crackup may be starting

Rep. David Jolly, a Florida Republican Congressman who wants to replace Marco Rubio in the Senate, took to the House floor yesterday to call on Trump to drop out. Leaders of the state party in all three of the early primary states took the extraordinary and controversial step of denouncing Trump this week. The RNC dropped him from their planned fundraiser. House Speaker Paul Ryan had a succinct reply to questions about Trump’s antics, “this is not conservatism.”

None of these moves are likely to dampen Trump’s poll numbers. In fact, in response to the New Hampshire chairwoman’s courageous stand there are growing calls for her resignation. And while most of the major candidates have distanced themselves, Ted Cruz, who is running an increasingly close second, is standing by Trump. Resistance from established party leadership is not dimming Trump’s prospects.

What separates Trump from the oddball candidates in prior campaigns is the weakness of the party infrastructure, his relative competence, independence from the usual financing demands, and his unfiltered appeal to racism. In short, he isn’t going away, which seems likely to force a major schism in the GOP.

Trump cannot win the nomination of the GOP for two reasons. First, as we are already seeing the party will not unify behind him, meaning the only route to a win is brute numbers – massive wins in primaries and caucuses sufficient to land an overwhelming delegate majority. And that raises the second problem – he hasn’t built the grassroots infrastructure necessary to secure convention delegates. He can win primaries and lose the delegate count.

So we have an ideologically unacceptable candidate who has built a formidable base of support who isn’t going away and will almost certainly run a devastating independent campaign if he isn’t somehow mollified. If his ideology was truly unique it might be possible to isolate him. His message isn’t at odds with the party, it is merely unfiltered. Donald Trump is stating out loud what far too many Republicans in positions of power have been saying behind closed doors. That’s why we can’t make him go away.

The Republican Party does not have leadership capable of navigating this storm. The crack up has begun.

What does it look like when a modern political party falls apart? We have some examples, at least at the local level. Perhaps one of the finest is the split that tore apart the Republican Party in Houston’s Harris County in the 90’s. For a few years the party technically had two chairmen after religious fundamentalist Steven Hotze led an insurgency to remove Chairwoman Betsy Lake.

What happened in Houston was relatively localized, with only a few other examples across the South. That fight was part of the wave of Dixiecrats fleeing the Democratic Party over its declining support for white supremacy. Houston became a battleground because unlike most of the rest of the South, the city already had a fairly well-developed Republican infrastructure aligned with the party’s national character. Across most of the rest of the Jim Crow Belt this takeover occurred with little resistance.

There has been very little formal research into what happened in Houston, but Google Books preserves a fine account from Professor John M. Bruce in the book God at the Grassroots: The Christian Right in the 1994 Elections. As the fight over Donald Trump plays out we’re likely to see the kind of fight that occurred in Houston spreading across the country.

For those of us who still hope to see a Republican Party that embraces reality and promotes sane, healthy politics, early evidence of a split from the white nationalist fringe is exciting. Let’s hope this conflict matures.

****

Former Houston Press and Houston Chronicle journalist Tim Fleck delivered some colorful coverage of the fight for the Harris County GOP in the 90’s. Here are a few of the highlights:

Log Cabin Fever

The Kingdom and the Power

Into the Den of Stockmania

Kissing Off a Kingmaker

And from Jim Simmon:

God, Guns and Kombucha

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Posted in Election 2016, Republican Party, Uncategorized
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