Trump Collapse Pool: March Update

Last July we started a GOPLifer comments-section pool to guess the date when Donald Trump’s campaign finally collapses. The winner would get a free copy of The Politics of Crazy. Here’s the definition of a ‘collapse’ for the purposes of the pool:

“Trump’s campaign is officially dead when his national polling average tracked by Real Clear Politics at this link, drops below 3% and stays there for seven consecutive days.”

Oh, what fun we’ve had since then. After dozens of entries, we are down to the Sweet Sixteen. Those folks who chose the calendar equivalent of “never” are starting to look pretty smart.

*correction – original post missed three entries.

1mime 1-Apr-16
tuttabellamia 1-Apr-16
CarolDuhart2 2-Apr-16
RightonRush 30-May-16
Doug 8-Jun-16
Anand Rangarajan 1-Jul-16
csarneson 1-Jul-16
Tom 18-Jul-16
briandrush 18-Jul-16
Gerrit Botha 18-Jul-16
jwthomas 18-Jul-16
vikinghou 21-Jul-16
Cpl. Cam 13-Oct-16
fiftyohm 3-Sept-16
EJ 25-Oct-16
Rob Ambrose 8-Nov-16
n1cholas 9-Nov-16
Houston-stay-at-Homer 2-Feb-17
Mark Maros 9-Nov-16
duncancairncross 15-Nov-16


Chris Ladd is a Texan living in the Chicago area. He has been involved in grassroots Republican politics for most of his life. He was a Republican precinct committeeman in suburban Chicago until he resigned from the party and his position after the 2016 Republican Convention. He can be reached at gopliferchicago at gmail dot com.

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59 comments on “Trump Collapse Pool: March Update
  1. fiftyohm says:

    Not that it matters so much at this point, but, and for the record, my prediction offered timely, was 3 September 2016.

  2. flypusher says:

    Gender gap:

    Not good, given ,IIRC, there are more female voters than male voters. That stupid Twitter diss of Heidi Cruz isn’t going to help.

    • 1mime says:

      Hillary isn’t doing so well in the younger female voter category either. Gramps Sanders, OTOH, is hot! (however you wish to interpret that descriptor…)

      Everyone keeps writing Sanders off, and despite HRC’s formidable delegate lead, it is going to be fascinating to watch the Dem campaign unfurl. We keep focusing on a Cruz catch up but maybe there is an equally interesting race on the left. What if Bernie marshals the 70% in remaining states and he gets really close to HRC? That is when polls are going to be interesting….as is watching what the DNCe does. It’s really all about who on the left can beat who on the right when it comes right down to the wire.

  3. flypusher says:

    Trump or Cruz? Some dark humor from Bill Maher:

    Way to pick the absolute worst 2 out of 17.

    • vikinghou says:

      Maher also covered the Cruz extramarital affairs story. He said that, if true, Cruz must have a better pharmacist than Bill Cosby to get women to sleep with him.

      • flypusher says:

        Yeah, I’m having a hard time imaging 5 women who would be willing to have a fling with that guy. But Cruz sleeping around would be one of his less objectionable character flaws, IMO. But this now has to be giving the Election of 1800 some serious competition in the most mud slung category. That’s some scholarship I want to see: give the top 5 nastiest Presidential contests!

        I recall one of Andrew Jackson’s contests got nasty with some personal attacks on his wife.

    • Catty, fatty, and batty… I’ll be lmao all day over that

  4. Back then when I picked 4/2, I thought that he would bail as soon as it looked like he would really have to follow through and raise serious money for the nomination. I thought it would be Bush, and he couldn’t have competed with that money storm. Now I’m terrified he might actually squeak through, and have volunteered to work for Hillary to get out the vote (I did the same for Obama 2008 and the 2010 midterms).

    I’m worried about the day after a Hillary victory. Even during the nightmare 2000 election, that left me crying at work, I never feared riots by the losing side. Or the winning side, either. This time, Trump’s followers feel this is their last chance to take “America back” from fellow citizens who aren’t like them. And I know Trump wouldn’t even try to be gracious as a loser. It’s his last chance, too. (He’s a year older than Hillary). So he knows he’s not coming back for a second try and has no need to run for anything else, so he has nothing to lose by burning the house around him.

    Speaking of the convention, I wonder just how tacky a Trump convention would be, and how it would probably embarrass the last remaining moderate old-school Republicans into voting Dem just to keep some dignity in the entire Presidency. Vegas showgirls? Jerry Lewis doing a solo? Bio video spliced from the Apprentice and reality tv? Who knows?

    • 1mime says:

      My reason was that I didn’t think Drumpf would be willing to do the work required to mount a serious campaign, and, even more important, that “he” would be accepted by the people, a personal rejection which his ego could not tolerate. I thought it was just a game to him….and he would depart rather than accept public failure. Thus April Fool’s Day seemed an appropriate campaign departure date.

      Obviously, I am not as smart as I thought I was. My only comfort is that I have so much company.

      • duncancairncross says:

        Hi Mime
        My logic was that Chris had set the drop off level too low so that from the point that Trump was at when Chris set the challenge he was never going to drop off the board enough to get down to Chris’s stop level so he would be still above the level even if he wasn’t (and I never thought he would be) the GOP nominee.
        I had no idea he would be at his current levels

  5. Titanium Dragon says:

    So, were the April 1st/2nd predictions people suggesting that Trump would reveal that his campaign was a huge practical joke?

  6. I’ve come to the conclusion that Trump is a unique cross between a Bond super-villain and Faust. I revise my date to January, 20, 2025. 😉

    • 1mime says:

      Hmm, you really think he’ll last two terms, eh?

    • Creigh says:

      About the time Lifer did this contest, Scott Adams (Dilbert) predicted that Trump would win the nomination, and perhaps the general election. His prediction of how Trump would campaign were eerily accurate.

  7. 1mime says:

    With the turmoil in today’s Republican Party, they have a new target to suppress – their own base. To be explicit, that portion of the base which are Trump supporters, and, this includes Delegates. Hillary or Bernie will have to prepare for either a Drumpf or a Cruz on the debate stage….that is a work in progress.

    • Ryan Ashfyre says:

      Oh sure, why not? Suppress your own voters at one point and then ask them to please come out and vote for you when you need them to. What could possibly go wrong?

      That aside, barring just going completely FUBAR, Hillary will slaughter Trump on a debate stage. Assuming, of course, that Trump even agrees to debate. Who knows?

      • 1mime says:

        GOP voter suppression has become a political art form. Here’s how the big boys do it. Forget any semblance of decorum. They don’t worry about little things like that. Who’s going to challenge them? Getouttahere…….I feel sorry for the people of Wisconsin who tried to remove Walker from office. They don’t deserve the government they have. Voter suppression IMHO, is one of the absolute worst, most chicken of all political activity. It is patently unfair and fallacious in basis. If a party has to do things like this to win, what does that say about America’s Democratic form of government? How can we hold ourselves up as better?

  8. flypusher says:

    OMG, she’s baaaaaacccckk!

    Still got her foot in her mouth past mid-thigh, I see. Can we get Akin back too? Mourdock? Let’s get the whole band back together!!

    • 1mime says:

      That’s a time when we thought there were just a few loony tunes in conservative ranks….But, “she’s baaack”! I’m thinking of making a donation to her campaign…..We can’t waste opportunities like this!

      • n1cholas says:

        This Republican monster has been a long time coming. The dixiecrats have been the Republican party base for awhile now. They were able to be kept on a leash for awhile, but between the internet, social media, and Citizens United, they’re out and about smashing everything they see.

        Bush Sr. described St. Ronald of Reagan’s economic plan as “Voodoo Economics”, because it didn’t make any sense. The entire “rising tides lift all boats” was really, “rising tides lift all yachts”. Everyone in a boat, whether a comfortable house boat, or a life raft, gets flooded and capsized by the sea of cash washing over and around them, into the bank accounts of the richest people in the solar system.

        And here we are. A bunch of the base has woken up to the fact that the Republican party has only ever given a shit about cutting taxes, while letting the white working class slowly die.

        But, just like an addict is unable to go from denial to acceptance, the white working class that supports Strongman Trump is right now in the anger and bargaining stage – anger at the people they’ve been electing for the past 40 years who don’t give one shit about them, and bargaining that Strongman Trump, not needing establishment cash, will walk into office and burn the whole fucking thing down.

        Anyone paying attention to the Republican party playbook, especially since Newt “leader (possibly) of the civilizing forces” decided that they’d poison the notion of working with illegitimate, bizarre Democrats, in order to form a Republican permanent majority, has seen this coming.

        See Driftglass and his post about the “pretty hate machine”. You can google Driftglass and pretty hate machine. Take a read, and you’ll see how we’ve seen this coming. For decades. The Republican party apparatus has been designed to get their base to ignore facts and reality. To piss off the base, while using media centrist BothSidesDoIt™ enablers to keep the establishment grifters on-board, so that they could get the base out to save America from Democrats who were going to surrender to the Vietnamese and French, while also making sure that a friendly grifter would be in actual charge, rather than the lunatic base.

        Which is why, way back in July, I saw Strongman Trump becoming the Republican nominee. He is the perfect Republican candidate. He’s a tribalist by nature, and rather than playing the dogwhistle, he just says whatever he wants about race/ethnicities/libruuls without trying to couch it behind euphemisms. The base is really, really pissed about having to use euphemisms when they want to spread their hatred. It’s annoying.

        I assume that if/when Strongman Trump loses the election, he will no longer be polling at 3%, since the polls for the 2016 election are officially over the day after the election, November 9th, 2016.Hence if he is the nominee and he loses, I win…at least as far as I’m concerned. Polling at 88% on November 9th means absolutely nothing for the 2016 election.

    • Rob Ambrose says:

      “Are you legal?”

      Should be immediately met with something along the lines of:

      -“What’s your fav sex position and why?”
      -“how many abortions have you had?”
      -“what’s your SSN?”

      When the asker sputters “what?!That’s….that’s…”

      “None of my business? Exactly.”

      • flypusher says:

        What makes that even more obnoxious is that some Hispanic citizens have family roots in that region that go back 7, 8, 9 or more generations. As in before the USA even existed.

    • Ryan Ashfyre says:

      What about Christine “I’m not a witch” O’Donnell?

      • Griffin says:

        Didn’t you hear? She has her own Super Pac now, which stands “to counter attack left-wing groups, fight the liberal media and support conservative candidates against the liberal-controlled GOP establishment””. It’s called ChistinePac! (See, I didn’t make it up!)

        Anybody who actually believes that… go ahead, send money to her. I’m sure roughly ten percent of it might actually go towards fighting for the causes you care about (if you’re lucky). But really if someone is crazy enough to believe all that I’m worried they’re also crazy enough to actually mail her their social security checks.

  9. Griffin says:

    This just makes me even more grateful that I don’t gamble with actual money considering how off I was. In retrospect maybe we should have seen it coming, Trump’s Dixiecrat platform (Socially far-right, economically populist) is much more in line with the bases policies than the Establishment’s has ever been. Add in that Trump’s a conman and affinity fraud is rampant on the right… boy it all seems pretty obvious now. Good job everyone on this list.

    • Griffin says:

      Though Jonathan Chait is arguing that despite his rhetoric policy wise Trump isn’t too different from other Republican candidates, he’s just more vulgar about it.

      For example:

      “…National Review’s Kevin Williamson diagnoses his party as split into “two main camps disunited by Trump’s illiterate populism.” But what is the source of this disunion? Trump supporters are “apocalyptic,” he explains, while his opponents are “happy warriors.” Williamson’s attempts to render the schism in substantive terms serve only to reveal the lack of substance. Trump supporters, he explains, view Black Lives Matter as “the announcement of a pending race war,” whereas anti-Trump Republicans like himself merely see it as “a destructive and sometimes thuggish protest movement.” How could a single party possibly contain such wildly divergent beliefs?”

      • 1mime says:

        And, how could both camps be so wrong…

      • Griffin says:

        The fact Kevin Williamson still writes for the National Review shows how low the “intellectual” conservative paper has fallen. This is the same guy who said Bernie Sanders was a Nazi, among other wingnuttery.

  10. Rob Ambrose says:
  11. Houston-stay-at-Homer says:

    As Trump’s not-yet-official speech writer, I would like to point out that you only see one 2017 entry on that list.

    I’m looking forward to my free copy of the book. It is likely I will need the book to use as kindling to stave off the cold and darkness after the total collapse of civilization.

  12. MassDem says:

    The perils of not voting–I never weighed in on this election, and now I’m concerned that those of us not participating have caused a rift in the space-time continuum, and we will end up with President Trump for life.

    Theerefore, for the good of the country, I cast my vote for July 20, 2016, the last night of the GOP convention, where an empty chair will be nominated by none other than Clint Eastwood, and subsequently proclaimed the GOP nominee by acclamation.

    Somewhat surpringly, nominee Chairy McChairface will go on to win in the general against Hillary Clinton, having broken no laws, never having lied, and having no position on any controversial topic ever.

    Also, I nominate Michael Steele for the title of “Happiest Man in America”.

    • 1mime says:

      Steele is well spoken and is indisputably the most optimistic Republican I know. He is knowledgeable and participates in a courteous style in a mixed pundit panel. As a result, the discussion is balanced and one can learn from the interchange. The one I can’t stand watching is Bill Kristol, not because of his views, (which one knows before he opens his mouth and to which he is entitled), but his style. He is rude, talking over others not allowing them to make their points, and has an air of pomposity that is offensive. As a result, I don’t listen TO him, but the problem is I’d like to hear the other panelists which he makes impossible. Chris Matthews has the same disruptive style which is jarring, rude to his guests and results in no one hearing anything being said. Why have these people on your program if you don’t want to hear what they have to say? David Gergen is thoughtful as is Charlie Rose in their commentary. It can be done, it’s posturing. There are sooooo many others we could discuss but thought I’d throw those few out there.

  13. tuttabellamia says:

    From looking at the RCP poll I see that only those still running are included. I had thought that even if Trump literally “collapsed” and dropped dead, he would still be on the ballot officially and would certainly poll above 3 percent. Even Rick Perry was at 4 percent when he made the B team in the first debate.

    So, according to Lifer’s rules, for Mime and me to be able to split a copy of the Politics of Crazy, Trump would have to drop dead today, which would put him below 3 percent for 7 consecutive days until April 1, which is the date predicted by Mime and me for the official date of collapse.

    • 1mime says:

      Actually, I have Lifer’s book on Kindle though a personal hard copy would be a nice addition to my political library….which is getting YUUUUUGE! Ah, so many good things to read, so little time….

  14. irapmup says:

    I’m not sure what today’s definition of collapse is, but no towel has been tossed in the ring.

    Wishful thinking?

  15. texan5142 says:

    I hope the convention turns to complete anarchy, love me some dog eat dog action. I am surprised being the capitalist that the neocons are that they have not made it a pay per view event.

    • texan5142 says:

      No offense to dog people.

      • 1mime says:

        Tex, See what you are missing by moving up to the land of many lakes? Is this not piling on here in TX? Can it keep getting worse?

      • Bobo Amerigo says:

        I like dogs.

        I also like my very ordinary, built in the 50s Houston neighborhood. One neighbor earns a little distinction, though.

        Early last year, he put up a For Sale By Owner sign. To prepare his property for visitors, he hung two flags from the eaves near the front door: a faded Old Glory and a crisp Confederate battle flag. In my experience, he doesn’t represent the people who liver here, but…

        Did the house sell? Hasn’t yet and it’s been months and months. I tend to think that many strangers driving by might feel uncomfortable knocking on that door, maybe even living in the neighborhood.

        When I moved to Texas in my early 20s, the state was freedom for me, a chance to be different than I might have been in my home state.

        These days, the state government is an embarrassment and I wonder if I made a mistake, moving back after some years in New England. Unlike texan5142, though, I can’t stand the snow and cold. 🙂

      • texan5142 says:

        I can’t stand the snow and ice also, but I can tolerate it for the reward of a beautiful Minnesota springtime, summertime and fall. I am sitting pretty for the climate change fiasco, I tell my brother in Pearland that just give it enough time and he will have beachfront property.

      • texan5142 says:

        Let me take that back, the first snow is beautiful… that wears of quick.

      • tuttabellamia says:

        Bobo, I suggest you display a Mexican flag outside your house, and that way, visitors and potential home buyers will see that your neighborhood values freedom of expression for all. Viva Free Speech.

      • Bobo Amerigo says:

        Tutt, I don’t equate the Confederate battle flag with the flag of any country, including Mexico.

        While flying it may seem like free speech to some, personally I recognize it as hate speech.

      • Titanium Dragon says:

        Banning a flag is a clear violation of freedom of speech.

        There’s nothing wrong with people flying Confederate battle flags – it marks them as crazy people.

        If only all the crazies were so considerate.

      • 1mime says:

        Well, Titanium, gotta agree with you on freedom to fly whatever flag on your property, but, it can make it kinda hard to sell your home….even though it’s useful to know what these people stand for, I’d rather they live anywhere else but in my community. The neo-natzi aryan group that is pushing the “White Lives Matter” organization are smack dab in the middle of Texas. As the SPLC points out, these are not the kind of folks you want living close by much less flying their flags.

    • 1mime says:

      Where is old “Hulk Hogan” when ya need him, right Tex?

      • Rob Ambrose says:

        Right now, hes probably building a giant vault where he can swim in his coming fortune a la Scrooge McDuck.

      • 1mime says:

        Hulk kinda disproves the old saw “all brawn and no brain” (-; He’s done right well for himself.

      • texan5142 says:

        Is that a euphemism?

      • duncancairncross says:

        When I lived in Columbus IN I used to put my Saltire out in front of my house at the beginning of July
        Immediately most of my neighbours would sprout “Old Glory”
        (Why is it “Old”? – it’s a LOT younger than the Saltire)

  16. csarneson says:

    I think you are missing some people. The “Update” thread had even more based on the comments section of the first thread.

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