Perhaps at some point during the early stages of this campaign for the GOP Presidential nomination you found yourself wondering whether any of these yahoos are actually serious. Are they just selling a book or supporting their TV show?
A previous post outlined a unique problem for this field – none of the candidates has sought the nomination before and, as a consequence, none of them has built an organization capable of supporting a national campaign. This is a particularly pressing problem if Donald Trump manages to lead in the primaries, since he will likely be unable to secure the pool of convention delegates that a potential victory would ordinarily yield.
Now we can start to see the outline of this problem on the ground. With about eight weeks left to secure signatures to land on the Illinois GOP primary ballot, only three Presidential campaigns have even started. Bush, Kasich and Rubio each have committed delegates in the process of collecting signatures, though Rubio still lacks a complete slate.
Remember, the primaries are merely a gateway to the nomination. The party’s nominee is not selected in a primary. They are selected at the national convention. Candidates who fail to recruit delegates face a very difficult road to the nomination, regardless of how well they poll in the primaries.