Let’s make this fun. Use the comments section below to enter your guess for the date when Donald Trump’s campaign finally collapses.
For the purposes of this game, Trump’s campaign is officially dead when his national polling average tracked by Real Clear Politics at this link, drops below 3% and stays there for seven consecutive days.
Whoever enters a guess closest to that date wins a free copy of The Politics of Crazy. Understanding of course that most of you who haven’t downloaded a copy already probably don’t intend to, let me add this detail. The free copy is delivered in the form of an Amazon gift certificate for the cost of the book, $7, which you can actually use on anything you want.
So, what’s your best guess? How much longer will The Donald be sucking the air out of the GOP primaries?
By the way, you have to check out the Trump Insult Generator. It’s a hoot. Here’s mine:
****
Here’s the pool update for Friday, July 24, 2015, sorted by the date:
| Turtles Run | 1-Aug-15 |
| flypusher | 13-Aug-15 |
| menaartgallery | 14-Aug-15 |
| JeffAtWolfCreekMicro | 26-Aug-15 |
| easyfortytwo | 27-Aug-15 |
| stephen | 7-Sep-15 |
| ANON | 16-Sep-15 |
| Griffin | 17-Sep-15 |
| Ronjan | 21-Sep-15 |
| 2keeplearning | 11-Oct-15 |
| Kebe | 15-Oct-15 |
| texan5142 | 16-Oct-15 |
| way2gosassy | 20-Oct-15 |
| Chris Ladd | 1-Nov-15 |
| Ryan Ashfyre | 10-Nov-15 |
| Firebug | 21-Nov-15 |
| Treeman | 1-Jan-16 |
| pbasch | 15-Jan-16 |
| James Montgomery | 1-Feb-16 |
| johngalt | 10-Feb-16 |
| dowripple | 29-Feb-16 |
| lomamonster | 29-Feb-16 |
| objv | 9-Mar-16 |
| Harley | 15-Mar-16 |
| David | 17-Mar-16 |
| Hans Messersmith | 22-Mar-16 |
| 1mime | 1-Apr-16 |
| tuttabellamia | 1-Apr-16 |
| CarolDuhart2 | 2-Apr-16 |
| RightonRush | 30-May-16 |
| Doug | 8-Jun-16 |
| Tom | 18-Jul-16 |
| briandrush | 18-Jul-16 |
| Gerrit Botha | 18-Jul-16 |
| jwthomas | 18-Jul-16 |
| vikinghou | 21-Jul-16 |
| EJ | 25-Oct-16 |
| Rob Ambrose | 8-Nov-16 |
| n1cholas | 9-Nov-16 |
| Houston-stay-at-Homer | 9-Nov-16 |
| Mark Maros | 9-Nov-16 |
| duncancairncross | 15-Nov-16 |
Chris Ladd is a Texan living in the Chicago area. He has been involved in grassroots Republican politics for most of his life. He was a Republican precinct committeeman in suburban Chicago until he resigned from the party and his position after the 2016 Republican Convention. He can be reached at gopliferchicago at gmail dot com.
GOPLifer 
LOL! Best post ever, Chris. 🙂
19-Sep-15
“Do you believe highly overrated Tracy Thorleifson? What a dope!”
? I’ve always thought of you as the incorrectly UNDERrated Tracy Thorleifson – at least here.
When I win this contest, you’ll have to join Tutt, Mime and me for a snow cone in New Mexico. I don’t know if you’ve done much hiking in Colorado, but you and Mrs. tthor will have to drive up there after the snow cone celebration.
That would be fun! 🙂
Amusing, but definitely overpriced:
http://store.democrats.org/products/gop-debate-watch-party-pack
Who’s going to televise the 1st debate?
I would love to attend a debate in person, to get a better feel for the energy in the room.
I wonder if there will be some ticket scalping?
Seriously. This is going to destroy the America that we know unless something changes.
LA is an open carry without permit state. This theater is not the “gun free zone” that the gun nuts are always braying about.
This man also had a criminal record. So with even a minimum amount of sane and reasonable gun control, there’s a decent chance he doesn’t have a gun.
Do the gun lovers really prefer the “freedom” to own as many and whatever guns they want if it means that you need to go through security checkpoints at movie theaters? Metal detectors at church?
When is enough enough? When thw entire country is on a permanent state of lockdown everywhere?
You realize that no other developed nation goes through this with anywhere NEAR the regularity of America, right?
This right to bear whatever arms you want wherever you want is infringing on everyone else right to feel safe and secure in their own country.
http://www.cnn.com/2015/07/24/us/louisiana-theater-shooting/
And without speculating on motive, I have a feeling (call it a gut) that were going to find out this guy (58 year old white male) is going to be a fox news watching type. The “angry old white man” that personifies the current far right.
And I also believe that there is going to be a trend of shootings commited by this type in the coming months and years.
Fox news (and rush and Hannity and Alex Jones etc etc) have made a lot of money scaring/winding up these nuts and now we’re all going to have to deal with the blowback.
What gets me is the fact that all it took was a pretty blonde to get killed by an illegal immigrant and the GOP is ready to pass a law to try and keep it from happening again. How many mass shootings by white Americans is it going to take before they try and address the problem.
Illegal immigrant kills pretty blonde woman = immediate action
Americans killing each other with guns every day = nothing
Too many fucking guns in this country.
https://library.stanford.edu/projects/mass-shootings-america/maps
Color me as entirely not surprised:
http://www.teapartynation.com/m/profile?screenName=3u826zwomustf
And all the fucking wingnuts are fucking worried about ISIS. Worry about your fucking crazy armed teabagging hateful brethren assholes. You know who you are. I am fucking sick of this shit.
I’ve been surfing around the net for updates on this latest atrocity, and a very ugly picture of the scumbag shooter is emerging. Seems this guy had issues with uppity wimmins. Didn’t like women working outside the home, his family gets restraining orders against him when they suspect he just might try to stop his 23 year-old daughter from getting married. What a loser troglodyte, and I suspect that it’s no coincidence that the 2 people he murdered were young women.
But mega kudos to the teacher who pulled the fire alarm. Her quick thinking probably saved some lives.
I wondered about that. I kept hearing that ‘two people were killed ‘ but I think what the various news should be saying is ‘two women.”
quick thinking probably saved some lives.
Also hear that the cops were there in under a minute.
Under a minute….
Yes, a good job by the local law enforcement.
Hearing more about this nutjob, jeeez, looks like he pretty much hated everybody.
“This man also had a criminal record. So with even a minimum amount of sane and reasonable gun control, there’s a decent chance he doesn’t have a gun.”
Really, Rob? You do know that it’s already a felony for a felon to own a gun, right? Do you have some magic plan to make it even more illegal-er? If a crazed nutball decides he wants to murder a bunch of fellow moviegoers (murder being a capital crime, if memory serves), do you really think another gun law is going to dissuade him (or her, as the case may be).
We have an estimated 300+ million guns in the hands of American citizens right now, 99+% of which have never been registered and are effectively untraceable. (And if NY SAFE Act compliance is any indication, they never will be registered.) We have somewhere on the order of 100+ million American adults owning one or more firearms, accounting for nearly half of all U.S. households. Roughly 5% of the adult population is now licensed to carry concealed. Gun sales are at an all time high; 20+ million NICS checks were performed last year alone, and we are on pace to top that this year. (NICS checks are a rough proxy for gun sales.) We have hundreds of federal gun statutes already, and thousands of gun laws in total when state and municipal statutes are added to the mix.
So what, exactly, constitutes “sane and reasonable gun control” in your view, Rob? How exactly do you plan to stuff the gun genie back in to the bottle? Just curious.
“Really, Rob? You do know that it’s already a felony for a felon to own a gun, right?”
So TThor, you’ve acknowledged and proven that existing laws suck royally. You’re just making the case for an unarmed populace (law abiding or not, it doesn’t fucking matter).
You know, just like every single other civilized country who also have almost nonexistent gun death rates via murder and accidents both.
As I’ve already said, I’m sick of this shit and the pure blatant, willful blind ignorance of the gun nuts and their fucking stupid “rights”.
Seems to me a common sense thing would be to restrict gun PURCHASE (not possession) until a background check is done.
Unless I’m misunderstanding LA gun laws, even though it may be technically illegal for a felon to possess a gun, the person selling the gun has no way of knowing if the person is a felon or not.
Is that accurate? Can a person walk into a gun shop and walk out with a gun just like that?
And at the end of the day, you may be right. It may be too late to do anytjing about it. The only option remaiming may be to get used to security everywhere, metal detectors everywhere, fear everywhere, fender benders turning into massacres, kids being gunned down at school etc.
And we have the blood soaked hands of the NBA to thank for it.
Also, the NRA bears some responsibility. It’s not all the NBA’s fault. (Autocorect)
Ok just confirmed with some googling.
So yes, anyone can walk into a gun shop and buy a gun as long as they have ID (only to check the age, not for any check). So yeah. That’s pretty absurd.
Tracy, you can’t say “we’ll it’s already illegal fo a felon to carry a gun. What more can we do?” with a straight face.
How about a 5 day waiting period for each and every gun bought, during which time a background check can be done. What sane person would possibly be against this idea?
I don’t know about you, but I can’t think of ONE reason why a “good guy with a gun” can’t wait 5 days for his gun. On the other hand, anybody needing a gun RIGHT NOW probably shouldn’t be getting the hands on one in the first place.
Just watch, it’s gonna come out that this guy bought the gun himself legally at a gun shop. And then the NRA will come out and talk about how the REAL problem is there’s too MANY gun laws.
What a joke. The 50+ white male demographic is fast becoming just as scary as the black hooded “thug”. Where are the parents for this demo? Why wernt they raised right?
“Really, Rob? You do know that it’s already a felony for a felon to own a gun, right?”
Unfortunately the laws are written so that it is easy to purchase a weapon without a background check or even the need to present an ID.
“We have hundreds of federal gun statutes already, and thousands of gun laws in total when state and municipal statutes are added to the mix.”
But does that mean they are effective. You seem to be concentrating on the number of laws but I think it is preferable to focus on the effectiveness of those laws. Way too may of these laws are there for the protection of the industry versus the public. .
So, Rob, the National *Instant* Criminal Background Check System (NICS) already gives the federal government three business *days* to complete the background check (and even then they can’t get it right, as we discovered in Chattanooga). Do you think five days will make a difference? Or maybe it should work like New Jersey’s concealed carry permit program, where the law requires the state to make a determination in 30 days, but in practice the state does whatever the heck it feels like. That worked out just peachy for Carol Browne, didn’t it?
And bubba, do you think your potty mouth makes you more persuasive? Hmm.
TThor I know no amount of facts, statistics, data, reason, or logic will persuade the gun nuts. I am just speaking my peace. Obama was right, you will just cling to them as your emotional pacifier.
He was a felon. He should not be able to buy a gun. The person in the transaction that needs to be controlled is the seller. And if he got the gun from an individual and not a dealer, that is why we should have mandatory background checks. And penalties for both parties when laws are not followed.
Tracy, you are right about millions of guns sloshing around with gun regulations being loosened by conservative state and municipal politicians. The problem will get worse before public opinion forces a change. Then it will take years to straighten out the mess we have now.
Tracy, the waiting period itself doesn’t really matter much. If there were a national system that a background check could be done in an hour, then an hours fine.
Thw point is, this guy walked into a pawn shop and walked out with a gun and nobody checked to see if he had a history that should have prevented him owning one.
That’s the issue. There us somethibg wrong when a wife beating schizophrenic can buy a gun legally.
Thw right to bear arms is not sacrosanct. Others right to life liberty and safety trumps it. And if the responsible gun owners don’t get behind some basic and reasonable restrictions on gun purchasing, then the few crazies are going to ruin it for everyone because just like children who can’t play nice with their things, then sooner or later the political will is going to be there to severely limit gun ownership.
People just aren’t going to accept being forced to live in a locked down police state with the threat of death looming everywhere so that the gun nuts can feel good about their deadly phallic symbols.
Restrict access to ammo. Take the razor blades away from the razor.
“Ok just confirmed with some googling. So yes, anyone can walk into a gun shop and buy a gun as long as they have ID (only to check the age, not for any check). ”
Your google fu needs some work. That is simply not true. Dealers are required to run every purchase through NICS. https://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/nics
The only exception is for people with a valid CHL (concealed carry license). CHL holders have already been through an extensive background check, fingerprinting, etc.
“And if he got the gun from an individual and not a dealer, that is why we should have mandatory background checks. And penalties for both parties when laws are not followed. ”
How would you possibly know when the laws are not followed? Any firearm made before the law went into effect could have traded hands multiple times. You want to see my proof of background check? Sorry, I bought this before one was required.
Doug – Yep, that is why I said it will take years to fix this god awful mess. Around 10,000 gun homicides a year. 32,000 gun deaths per year and rising.
And we won’t even start on it until it gets so bad that we will be afraid to go to the theater or any public place.
Well, Rob and unarmed, you both inadvertently touched on the crux of the matter. As Doug pointed out, you can’t walk in to a gun dealer and walk out with gun. First, you have to fill out a form 4473, which is then submitted to the NICS system. Only if you pass the background check do you walk out with a gun. (Or you might have to wait 3 days, if NICS returns a hold.)
In this case the purchaser knowingly lied on the form (see https://www.atf.gov/file/61446/download) which in itself is a felony. Then the NICS check failed. No amount of increased wait time would fix that particular problem; root cause analysis will likely determine that the murderer’s mental health status was never reported in the first place. The NSSF has a program underway (http://www.fixnics.org/#&panel1-1) to help address the technical problems with NICS. You may want to consider supporting it. (You’ll note that neither Every Town nor Moms Demand are *not* sponsors. Hmm.)
Of course, the problems with NICS merely underscore a larger issue. Although progressives have trouble grasping such a concept, the simple truth is that it’s impossible to legislate away evil. Bad guys don’t obey the law in the first place. Prima facie, another gun law isn’t going to fix that.
Short of a Constitutional amendment to rescind the 2nd Amendment, we have reached the ‘grasping at straws’ stage with gun control law in this country. NICS is a prime example. One of the reasons that NICS works so poorly is that law enforcement and the criminal element both know that criminals do not submit to NICS checks. Criminals obtain their firearms on the black market. As a law enforcement tool to capture professional criminals, NICS is absolutely useless. Thus the FBI pays scant attention to it.
NICS *could* be useful in preventing the mentally unhinged from obtaining weapons, but only if a *very* extensive overhaul of the system that includes massive improvements in coordination between a wide array of government agencies and private mental health providers occurs. (See FixNICS, above.) And even then, NICS would only pick up those with a prior history of mental health problems. The self-radicalized jihadist, the “organized” psychopath, the newly mentally ill: none of these people are going to be in the database.
And so here we are. The best we seem to be able to come up with as a solution to the Lafayette-flavor of mass murderer is “universal background checks,” which criminals will ignore anyway, and which isn’t going to do any better at catching nutballs unless NICS is fixed. In short, the juice isn’t worth the squeeze.
Here’s an alternative, which Americans by the millions are embracing (600,000+ NICS checks last month alone – that’s a lot of gun sales): Since the police, no matter how brave and dedicated they are, simply aren’t going to be there for you when you need them the most, you just have to reconcile yourself to becoming your own first responder when it comes to your personal security and that of your loved ones. Get some training, purchase a firearm, learn how to use it effectively and responsibly, and how to store it safely. And if you aren’t willing to take on that responsibility for yourself and your family, then at least do those of us who are the courtesy of not being an unmitigated nuisance.
Tracy – *Get some training, purchase a firearm, learn how to use it effectively and responsibly, and how to store it safely. And if you aren’t willing to take on that responsibility for yourself and your family, then at least do those of us who are the courtesy of not being an unmitigated nuisance*
I am so sorry about being a nuisance.
How is the training conducted to keep you from getting shot in a darkened theater? Sit in the back row? Everybody can’t sit in the back row. Alternate with the spouse facing backwards, scanning the crowd for sudden movements? With night vision goggles?
The world you want seems crazy to me. I long for the good old days when the NRA taught you how to go through a barb wire fence safely while hunting.
Well, unarmed, both my carry guns are equipped with tritium night sights and CrimsonTrace laser sights. Should it ever come down to the dark theater scenario, I’ll be putting rounds on target. I don’t plan to go gently. What’s your plan? Oh, right. *unarmed*. Good luck with that. 😉
Well, TwoGuns, that sounds like a plan :>) Of course I hope you or anyone has to face that situation. Just curious, in your part of the country, will you be the only defensive shooter?
Of course I hope you DON”T have to face
Your comment on my plan got me thinking. I guess my plan is similar to my plan for deciding if I go swimming at the beach this year. There’s been some shark attacks in the news. So if there are a lot of people in the water, I’ll go swimming. If I will be alone in the deep water, nope. You know just playing the odds.
It’s the same with my plan for getting shot in a movie theater. Right now, odds are against any particular theater getting attacked. But I bet that attendance will be down a point or two in the near term. Another incident within the memory span of the public and attendance will be down further. Another yet and I will wait for movies to go to cable. And theaters will install metal detectors.
“Of course I hope you DON”T have to face”
Me, too, unarmed. Me, too. It is my most fervent desire to live out my life without ever having to take the life of another human being. (And that ought to give a clue as to how I conduct myself when carrying. I have no doubt the same can be said for the vast majority of CHL holders.)
BTW, I don’t generally carry two guns at the same time. My two carry guns are of different size; the choice of weapon is dictated by the amount and type of clothing I’m wearing, which is in turn dictated by the weather. In summertime when I’m typically wearing shorts and a T-shirt my carry gun is a small J-frame revolver. In cooler weather, when I’m wearing more and heavier clothing, I go with a larger semi-auto pistol.
“You know just playing the odds.”
unarmed, it sounds like your plan is luck, which works just fine until your number comes up. Let me ask: Do you drive without a seat belt? Do you not have a fire extinguisher in your home? Do you not carry home, auto, health, and life insurance? My guess is that like the vast majority of Americans, your answer to all these questions would be, “No.” Yet when it comes to the most basic form of insurance for personal security, many Americans are unwilling to take the necessary steps to mitigate potential threats. Not only that, but these same people seem quite willing to deny their neighbors the ability to do so. Frankly, I find it very puzzling.
Let me pass on a few words of wisdom from my dad, unarmed: “Luck is not a plan.”
So you don’t want to be called TwoGuns, Tracy? ;>)
“Luck is not a plan” Don’t we all use luck in our planning? I live on a hill. It gets icy in the winter which makes for great entertainment sometimes. So in my planning, I considered getting a 4 wheel drive vehicle. ( I know you have one for your hunting and such) But I considered the odds, I usually can make it up the hill with my one wheel drive car (front wheel drive with no locking differential) I had to walk up the hill a couple of times in 10 years. If I had a 4 wheel drive, with its extra weight to push around 365 days a year and the extra tire wear, I just figured I would take my chances with my great gas mileage one wheel drive car. Push my luck, so to speak. Play the odds.
Considered “rearming” myself. I think a lot about home defense. But I can not justify a gun in my home. Multiple guns really to do it right,
I know we will always disagree in general about this, but I just want say, I don’t want to ban anything.
So with all due respect to your dad, I tell my son, there is a fine line between planning and paranoia.
unarmed, I liked your example, but does it prove your point? I, too, live at the top of a hill. Last year, we had some snow and my husband’s old BMW 540i couldn’t make it up the hill while my daughter’s fuel efficient, less expensive Subaru Legacy had no problems. I spent the afternoon shoveling snow so my husband could get to the garage after work.
Since we moved to New Mexico, my husband and I have had to rethink our car choices. We made do for a couple years with our Houston cars, but we finally sold my husband’s 15-year-old beemer and bought a Ford F-150 a week ago. Now we don’t have to worry about driving in the mountains or on some of our washed out roads. We can pull a trailer or a camper. We can bring home big items from Sam’s Club. 🙂
There’s nothing wrong with being cautious about buying unnecessary items, but if you were in an accident and had to buy a new car, wouldn’t you strongly consider getting a car that could make it up your hill? If you lived in a crime ridden area wouldn’t you consider getting a gun? I wouldn’t call it crazy – I would call it prudent.
obv, I did leave out a part of my automotive story. Management here at the house has an all wheel drive. I play the odds but I’m not stupid. I also look at payoffs and/or possible loss when I gamble. She getting stuck at the bottom of the hill is a totally different proposition.
I might own a gun if I lived in a bad neighborhood. Actually, I live in within a few blocks of areas that I would feel nervous at 3 or 4 in the morning. I’ll try to remember all the points that made me become gun free a few years back. The chances of an armed person entering my house to do me or the family harm is sooo remote. I really don’t have any https://www.citizensbankonline.com/enemies.
But I have grandkids that visit often, … On second thought, have seen Jim Jefferies routine?
It really contains my thoughts on guns. And this is what I puzzled out on my own before I saw his routine, honest. If you take out the comedic generalizations and exaggerations it is a shortcut to all my thoughts on guns.
I worked for years all over the city of Philadelphia, including an area, 22nd and Diamond, that would make people mutter under their breath. Innocent kids ,bystanders, were getting shot by the gangbangers to the point that I heard suggestions of taking the gang members to the range for practice. And they were only partially joking. The thought of me carrying a gun never tripped across my pea brain.
But I would not second guess someone who lived in a rough neighborhood and weighed the odds and bought a couple of guns. If the gun industry would allow safer guns (another subject) I would chip in to help those in real danger.
I wish I could add a tagline to every comment. It would say “I don’t want to ban anything”.
But I fervently believe we need to change laws, if nothing else on mandatory training, and policing the secondary market. And I really don’t know how to do that and allow avid pro-gun people to overthrow the tyrannical government they see encroaching.
I don’t want to ban anything
Thanks for asking.
Now that is funny. I have touch screen and a gnat landed on the screen and inserted a banks internet address.
obv and tracy if he is still looking here. Please let me reiterate, buying and driving a 4 wheel drive car or truck is not cost free for the other 360 some days of the year. Initial costs, extra weight, extra drag in the drive train. Possibly minimal to you but not free.
And to commit to multiple guns, because one won’t cover all scenarios, training, ammunition, practice, safe storage, possibly specialized furniture, more practice, family education. Those are the ways I would have to commit to serve my new gun way of life.
And then there are the other non tangible tradeoffs to having a gun in the house. There is still the possibility that I will make a mental mistake, leave a gun where my 7 year old granddaughter picks it up and blows the brains out of my 11 year old grandson. How about me waking to a loud banging outside the bathroom door and my grogginess I shoot someone that banged their toe and is hopping around. Or possibly more likely a neighbor kid breaks in on a lark or to feed his drug problem and I righteously kill him in my living room. And I have to live with that the rest of my life.
I don’t want to ban anything.
Houser is another TP angry old white man and most likely an Alex Jones/Rush Limbaugh follower.
http://www.teapartynation.com/profile/JohnRussellHouser
WHAT!!! A tea bagger that is also angry and a right wing loon. Is this something new?
As a total outsider I don’t think the Donald (and his hair) will drop below 3% of republican voters until after the election so I will go 1 week after the 8th Nov – 15th of November 2016
President Trump is going to be very disappointed in you all. He may even send his team of investigators to look into your birth certificates.
I’m still sticking with February 3, 2017, two weeks after his inauguration.
Trump looking into birth certificates? Homer, that’s despicable. I’m sure no one here would stoop that low ….
Someone said it costs $150-200 millon to get the GOP nomination. Trump isn’t going to spend that kind of money. I doubt he’s got it anyway. Let’s see how much he drops in the Boston market. January, I don’t care, 2016.
OT. Another responsible ammosexual proves they have more gun than brains. One of the idiots that are protecting the recruiting stations around the country had his assault rifle taken from him by police because he accidently discharged it while manning his post.
Funny how the irresponsible look just like everyone else. This is the real danger of people carrying firearms in public. Most are untrained in the handling of their weapons. Being a range Ranger is not the same as understanding the ability to use it.
http://www.rawstory.com/2015/07/armed-civilian-guarding-ohio-army-recruitment-center-accidentally-fires-weapon/comments/#disqus
The Fickle Finger of Fate arises again!
It seems to me that the easiest solution to the problem is to change whatever rules need changing so that the military people assigned to recruiting stations can be armed and defend themselves. That’s supposed to be one of the things military people are trained to do. Or is there some problem with that that I’m overlooking??
Fly – The issue is that no matter the training when someone is going to attack you – be it a mass shooting or even a mugging – the perp is not going to advertise their intentions. They have the natural advantage. That is why conceal carry or even open carry is an absurb way to defend yourself. Unless you decide to pull your weapon on anyone that gets within 20 feet of you or gives you the ole stink eye you will always be at the disadvantage and will not generally get the chance to defend yourself with that weapon.
I understand that, but I figured if somebody had to be carrying, better the people who were properly trained. Also depending on how many military people were present, a bad guy might not get the drop on all of them at once?
Hard to say. Unless your mind is in the proper mode anyone involved would have that delay to react to a shooting. The gun man only needeed seconds to kill his victims. I would also point out that not all members of the military have the same type training when it comes to weaponry. A lot of recruiters are from non-combat arms jobs and recruiters even if well trained with weapons lose their skills because they are not as active training with firearms. Time dulls skills.
I know the Marines are very big on marksmanship. Even members of the band have to qualify on their shooting. I think the military can find people within their ranks qualified to provide security, since it looks like recruiting stations are now targets.
Chris, I do exist, and I did state: “The business deal should be finalized by at least Feb. 29, 2016 to ensure the survival of the status quo…”
It is curious that in effect, Trump will “purify” the GOP by pulling a majority of the “crazies” away from the party should he indeed go for a third party candidacy. The GOP will lose, of course, the Presidential election, but will be left with the opportunity to cleanse itself in a more methodical approach to sanity. That might be the only thing left if there is to be a future for the GOP.
Flabbergasting, eh?
Think of Trump as an industrial size enema.
I just spilled coffee on my keyboard!
March 9 is National Get Over It Day. It would be a good day to call it quits.
We could then have elections in in May so that Pres. Obama could celebrate National Leave the Office Early Day on June 2. 🙂
I like it.
Thank you, Doug. While we’re at it, I predict that Bernie will last until December 28 (National Fruitcake Day).
“Obama could celebrate National Leave the Office Early Day on June 2”
Too make way for President Clinton.
Turtles, Eeeeek! NOOOOOOOOO! NO, NO, NO!
Would President Sanders make you feel better.
No, Hillary will get tripped up on April 30, National Honesty Day.
Yes Doug, and allllll the Republican clown candidates wouldn’t because of THEIR “honesty”.
Or even just one.
So I guess by default we will have to keep Obama for a third term.
Is that what you are proposing by your criterion Doug?
Or you just really want to hypocritically install YOUR favored wingnut ABJECT liar?
I’m pretty sure Obama will go down as one of the better president’s in recent memory. I’d like to keep him in power, doing the stuff he’s been doing, until the last day of his presidency.
2/29/16, just cause it’s Leap Year
May 30, 2016 5:45 pm Starts his 3rd party run just to piss off the Republicans.
APRIL 1, 2016
Nice choice for the fool’s exit!
Dow, I thought of you while staying in Ruidoso in May. Wonderful place!
Funny, Tutt!
I see Miss Mime and I will have to share those $7 . . .
Tutt, I’m guessing, Lifer will be so relieved that Trump is out of the race that he’ll give you both $7 certificates AND send you signed copies. Since he’s a rich Republican, I’m sure Chris can afford it and will be feeling generous. 🙂
OV, I think the media is focusing way too much on Mr. Trump, giving him way too much power, as if he were THE face of the Republican Party (and he is not), because he is drawing so much attention to himself with his outrageous comments. And I’m not a big believer in polls in general, especially those showing him doing so well. Polls are fly-by-night and just capitalize on who’s getting the most exposure at any given moment. The media needs to give more exposure to the other 20 or so candidates, but no, that would not be as interesting.
Remember Objv, you don’t become a rich Republican by giving things away…
And a book is not a book unless it’s in print. 🙂
OV – Miss Mime and I already have the book, so I will suggest to her that we take those $7 and go out for snow cones, and you can come, too! We have to wait until April, though.
You never know, Tutt. I might be the winner. Then, you and Mime will have to come to New Mexico to get the snow cones.
Lifer, the rule of thumb is that Republicans are generous with their own money and Democrats are generous with other peoples’ money.
Lest I be accused of being a Democrat, I hasten to remind you that I have no power to levy taxes. 🙂
November 9, 2016
As a further insult to the nation, if Trump doesn’t succeed in his game plan to be bought out of the GOP contest, he will run as an independent under his new party to be named, “Citizens United”.
I can already hear the Supremes screaming in falsetto!
I predict Trump will go all the way to the Republican Convention and, should he not get the nomination, he will go independent. So I’ll say July 21, 2016.
And just to make things more complicated, we could see Trump’s GOP campaign die, only to be reanimated as a zombie 3rd part campaign:
http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/exclusive-trump-threatens-third-party-run/ar-AAdnC0L
If and when that happens, Hillary can call the decorators.
Right after the second debate, whenever that is.
Wow, lots of people using their birthday. Why not? In for October 11.
Hate to get all serious on you, but this latest TX action on immigration is a doozie. Hope the challenge goes all the way to SCOTUS.
http://digital.olivesoftware.com/Olive/ODE/HoustonChronicle/LandingPage/LandingPage.aspx?href=SEhDLzIwMTUvMDcvMjM.&pageno=MQ..&entity=QXIwMDEwMg..&view=ZW50aXR5
Sorry. Link didn’t activate. Here’s the gist of today’s article in the Houston Chronicle:
“Democratic lawmakers are calling on Texas officials to stop denying birth certificates to some children who were born in this country but whose parents are here illegally.
Under the Constitution, children born on U.S. soil automatically are citizens of this country.
The Texas Department of State Health Services, however, has refused to issue the certificates needed to enroll in schools or seek medical benefits to some parents, saying they lack the necessary identification to obtain the documents.”
It appears conservatives only respect the U.S. Constitution when it supports their views.
Donald Trump will tank after January, 2016, when Republican primary voters get real!
4/02/16. After losing a key Republican primary to Jeb and a coalition of the scared-we-could really lose this thing badly voters, Trump drops out to start his independent bid.
Move over, Carlos Slim! Trump will be the richest man in the world after having been bought out by almost all major Wall Street interests, the mountain of
lobbyists for major corporate entities, television and print magnates, and a multitude of private power mongers willing to lose significant fortunes now to save face in the future. The business deal should be finalized by at least Feb. 29, 2016 to ensure the survival of the status quo…
THAT is really the final game plan. The cost of the Presidency will then become out of reach for anyone who pretends to run in the future.
21 November 2015
Hmmmm…Trump’s poll numbers below 3% for a week?
This should actually be pretty simple.
Election is on November 8, 2016, and Trump polls in the low 50s to win the election.
Inauguration Day is January 20, 2017, first day on the job, poll numbers in the low 60s because you gotta support what you are stuck with.
“Help, a weasel is pretending to be my hairpiece” becomes a national scandal on January 21st, and poll numbers begin to fall.
January 22nd, Vice President Rubio intentionally fails as project manager on “Vice President Apprentice” and is fired by Trump, poll numbers continue to fall.
January 23rd, Trump announces that Ivanka Trump, his daughter, will be the new Vice President, because, “She’s a winner unlike all these Washington losers”. Poll numbers rebound with posting of pictures of our new Vice President in a slinky dress.
January 24th, ground war breaks out with India over naming rights regarding the Trump Taj Mahal versus the actual Taj Mahal. Poll numbers fall, but defense lobbyists are thrilled.
January 25th, Vice President Ivanka is sent to work with Indian representatives on a cease fire, but meeting is cancelled when a confused Ivanka goes to a newly opened sandwich shop on a Cherokee reservation rather than to New Dehli (think about it just a bit and it will be hilarious). Poll numbers fall even more.
January 26th, Trump declares the country bankrupt and moves on to his next project to become President of a different country because he can’t work with all the losers here.
So, seven days after January 26th, Let’s go with February 3rd, 2017.
Damn, I thought W. H. Harrison’s record would stand!
October 15th 2015. SNL needs a few airings to put the last nail in his coffin. I wonder if Darrell Hammond will step forward for his Trump like he did for Bill Clinton this past season?
I’ll take a crack at it and say around November 10th, 2015. If Trump manages to hang on that long, I say it’ll be right after the third debate that he really starts tanking.
Trump will sense that his 15 minutes are up and drop out, but it will take a while. Feb. 10, 2016.
September 21, 2015
They all laughed at Christopher Columbus
When he said the world was round
They all laughed when Edison recorded sound
They all laughed when Reagan said he could be gov. of California (sorry, does not rhyme)
August 27 is my birthday. I want a book.
I agree with those who think Trump will still poll 3%+ in some poll or other right up to the opening of – and maybe even after – the GOP convention. He’s the crazies’ choice and there are plenty of crazies. I’ve already downloaded, read and digested your book and recommend it to everyone everywhere. And, BTW, I’m a registered Democrat who likes but is not supporting Bernie.
What could the party offer to Mr. Trump that would induce him to desist? It’s the Donald, you know, and not unlike Sen. McCain he doesn’t like to quit. I think his remarks got twisted a bit by the time they came to mean what is commonly understood.
I’m not betting on this one.
However Republicans should continue to be pleased by the prospects of an authentic candidate. Sen. Graham and Gov. Kasich have both joined the race. At some point in time the candidates excluded from the official debates will hold independent Republican dates. Then all bets be off. That would be off the hook.
In the meantime I’d like to see some serious policy stuff put out there. A bit to the right of where we’re headed would be a balm for the public.
I’ll go ahead and enter my bet. I’ll say Nov 1, 2015.
To my surprise, what he said about McCain wasn’t enough to end the campaign. However, I think as the primary season becomes real later in the year and more people are paying attention, the gaffes will pile up. He’ll melt down to a core of weirdos down under 3% by late fall.
In it until he loses three primaries in a row.
November 9th 2016.
That was going to be my joke too.
I’ll say 25 October 2016, two weeks before election day.
I’ll put my money on the green double ’00’ .
Trump will NEVER be “out of the race” by the standards set out by Lifer.
Fun idea Lifer.
If someone’s already taken that, I’ll say September 16, 2015.
They will abandon him as fast as they embraced him. August 26th 2015.
6/8/16
Labor day and I have already downloaded the book.
August 1, 2015
I already have the download.
You’re joking, surely? May I remind you of all the despicable characters who have gained power democratically? Trump has a high floor. Why would the nutbars abandon him? He is their id and the base wants to nominate its id.
If you’re serious, my guess is the convention floor.
I’m biased as a democratic socialist, but id will out when a party spends 5 decades assiduously removing its own superego. BTW, I’m as nostalgic as anyone, but perhaps it is time to leave the past behind? May I recommend to you a certain Mr Bernie Sanders? Come over to the dark side: we have cookies 🙂
Thanks for a great blog.
August 14, 2015
I’m going to guess the second debate will be where it happens. The first will have cracks show in his numbers and the second will finish it. So September 17 (the day after the debates).
Some good news for you Chris, Hillary Clinton does not seem to be a strong candidate in Virginia right now, despite the increasing strength of the Democratic Party their popularity is not extending to her yet (http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/2016-presidential-swing-state-polls/release-detail?ReleaseID=2261). A GOP win is still a long shot but maybe it isn’t completely over yet if they capitalize on her perceived character flaws (though they could also go too far with it and blow their opportunity).
Griffin, Quinnipiac is a very small poll. Hoping it’s wrong but agree that Hillary needs to sprinkle a little pixie dust over her campaign to liven things up.
Chris himself has already said how Hillary Clinton is the single most well vetted candidate in this cycle, if not modern political history. Suggesting that the GOP could capitalize on her “perceived character flaws” is just another way of saying that they’re going to throw everything they have at her and hope to whatever god they believe in that something sticks, which they were going to do anyways.
Fundamentally, it’s no different from pouring hundreds of millions of dollars into negative TV ads and getting less bang for your buck.
If the Republicans had an actual agenda to coalesce around to contrast against Hillary Clinton, while at the same time striking hard at some genuine, ACTUAL flaws that genuinely concerned voters, that would be one thing. That ain’t the case.
@Ryan that’s the most likely situation. Hillary’s biggest disadvantage is that in poll after poll she’s perceived as untrustworthy so in a perfect world for the GOP she’d be beatable. If an “authenic” seeming and mostly sane moderate Republican (such as Jon Huntsman) got through the GOP primary without many issues Hillary might be in trouble. Instead they’re going to nominate either a hack or a fanatic who will rant about non-issues like Benghazi and lose to Hillary, she probably won’t even have to campaign much. Just interesting how if the GOP wasn’t a total mess she might not be perceived as the strongest candidate Democrats could put forward.
March 17, 2016
October 16, 2015
For no other reason than it is my birthday, wild guess.
Here is an early present for you Texan: Linsey Graham responds to the Donald’s doxxing:
I’ll go with October 20, cause it’s my birthday and I already bought the download. But I’ll take a cookie instead!
I’m going to guess that Trump’s support will stay above 3% until the Republican Convention itself. If some of the crazy things he’s said already haven’t caused him to self-destruct, nothing will. So: July 18, 2016.
The day of the 1st poll after the 8/6 GOP debate.
I’m thinking that Trump is going to self-immolate on the debate stage in a spectacular, historical, and highly entertaining fashion.
Oops, let’s clarify that. If the debate is the beginning of the end, my official bet has to be 8/13/15, based on a 7 day poll flatline.
The GOP convention?
Trump’s polling average will stay above that based on name recognition alone for quite a while. He is somewhat like Ron Paul: he doesn’t have to be taken seriously to continue his campaign indefinitely. I do not think he has the dedicated group of core supporters that Paul does, but there is little reason to think he will drop that low any time soon.
Oh, gosh. I have no theory on this, so I’m randomly going to say January 15, 2016. I’m basing this on his having said something awful about Christmas or about the supposed War on Christmas. Then the to-ing and fro-ing will being, and culminate in his dropping out mid-January. And, for the record, while I haven’t downloaded your book, I still might, or at least might want to if it were given to me as a prize!
Harley beat me to March 15, so I’ll say March 22, give the March 15 primaries 7 days to sink in.
Just for grins, I’ll take April 1st (-:
Ah, that was going to be my pick!
Grinning Mime! 😉
March 15, 2016
Yes, I think he lasts until Super Tuesday next year, so I’ll land between Harley and Hans with March 18 (a Friday, when nobody’s allegedly paying attention)