Guess when Trump’s campaign collapses

Let’s make this fun. Use the comments section below to enter your guess for the date when Donald Trump’s campaign finally collapses.

For the purposes of this game, Trump’s campaign is officially dead when his national polling average tracked by Real Clear Politics at this link, drops below 3% and stays there for seven consecutive days.

Whoever enters a guess closest to that date wins a free copy of The Politics of Crazy. Understanding of course that most of you who haven’t downloaded a copy already probably don’t intend to, let me add this detail. The free copy is delivered in the form of an Amazon gift certificate for the cost of the book, $7, which you can actually use on anything you want.

So, what’s your best guess? How much longer will The Donald be sucking the air out of the GOP primaries?

By the way, you have to check out the Trump Insult Generator. It’s a hoot. Here’s mine:



Here’s the pool update for Friday, July 24, 2015, sorted by the date:

Turtles Run 1-Aug-15
flypusher 13-Aug-15
menaartgallery 14-Aug-15
JeffAtWolfCreekMicro 26-Aug-15
easyfortytwo 27-Aug-15
stephen 7-Sep-15
ANON 16-Sep-15
Griffin 17-Sep-15
Ronjan 21-Sep-15
2keeplearning 11-Oct-15
Kebe 15-Oct-15
texan5142 16-Oct-15
way2gosassy 20-Oct-15
Chris Ladd 1-Nov-15
Ryan Ashfyre 10-Nov-15
Firebug 21-Nov-15
Treeman 1-Jan-16
pbasch 15-Jan-16
James Montgomery 1-Feb-16
johngalt 10-Feb-16
dowripple 29-Feb-16
lomamonster 29-Feb-16
objv 9-Mar-16
Harley 15-Mar-16
David 17-Mar-16
Hans Messersmith 22-Mar-16
1mime 1-Apr-16
tuttabellamia 1-Apr-16
CarolDuhart2 2-Apr-16
RightonRush 30-May-16
Doug 8-Jun-16
Tom 18-Jul-16
briandrush 18-Jul-16
Gerrit Botha 18-Jul-16
jwthomas 18-Jul-16
vikinghou 21-Jul-16
EJ 25-Oct-16
Rob Ambrose 8-Nov-16
n1cholas 9-Nov-16
Houston-stay-at-Homer 9-Nov-16
Mark Maros 9-Nov-16
duncancairncross 15-Nov-16

Chris Ladd is a Texan living in the Chicago area. He has been involved in grassroots Republican politics for most of his life. He was a Republican precinct committeeman in suburban Chicago until he resigned from the party and his position after the 2016 Republican Convention. He can be reached at gopliferchicago at gmail dot com.

Tagged with:
Posted in Election 2016
159 comments on “Guess when Trump’s campaign collapses
  1. […] the GOPLifer blog laughed off the threat of a Donald Trump nomination with a lighthearted wager. Commenters posted a date when they estimated Trump’s polling numbers would drop below the minuscule threshold of the […]

  2. […] in July we launched a pool to guess when Donald Trump’s campaign collapses. The winner or winners would receive their very free copy of The Politics of […]

  3. Anand Rangarajan says:

    July 1, 2016

  4. Ivar says:

    I’d go for Aug.6th

  5. csarneson says:

    I say July 1, 2016. He seems no crazier than the rest of the field and there will always be some group of people willing to vote for the loudest personality. I think his support finally crumbles once a single frontrunner emerges and the rest flock to the bandwagon.

  6. Creigh says:

    Here’s a thing about Trump. He claims he’s rich enough to finance his own campaign. I don’t have a clue if he is or isn’t, but he’s not doing what he’s doing with money, it’s all Trumpitude so far. And you gotta admit, that’s more democratic than having a casino magnate paying your bills. So maybe he’ll drop out when it becomes necessary to spend money. I got no guess, other than that.

  7. Cpl. Cam says:

    Oct. 13 2016

  8. goplifer says:

    Well, I have to admit I expected his poll numbers to sag after the McCain incident. I have over-estimated my fellow Republicans once again.

    Trump leads the field by a massive margin. When second-choices are included in the calculus, he takes a lead large enough to make him competitive for the nomination.

    This is actually happening. I have no idea what to say.

    Perhaps our next pool should be: Pick the name of the organization that takes the place of the Republican Party.

    • vikinghou says:

      Yes, the GOP has its hands full with a media savvy candidate who has virtually unlimited resources to finance his campaign singlehandedly. I honestly don’t think Trump really wants to be President. That would be too much hard work. My prediction is that he’ll ditch the GOP and make a 3rd party run just to keep the bandwagon rolling. It’s all about publicity.

    • rightonrush says:

      Trump is having a blast, and as long as it’s fun he isn’t going to go anywhere.

    • Griffin says:

      I think I know what it is Lifer. Trump still has Fox News on his side, Bill O’Reily stood up for him, as did Steve Doocey, Eric “Dumbest man on Fox” Bolling, Hannity, etc. (It’s just the video clip of O’Reily)

      This can be chalked up to Roger Ailes apparently loving Donald Trump, he’s a massive fan of him. Yeah I don’t know why either but if there’s any reason the base still loves him this may be it, not to mention the recent affection they’ve begun to show for overtly authoritarian leaders (see the recent, confused love affair between the American far-right and Putin)

      • Rob Ambrose says:

        They just parrot what their overlords tell them.

        The minute Fox/Rush/Hannity et al turn on Trump, that’s when he’ll become irrelevent in the polls.

      • AWJ says:

        On the topic of overt authoritarianism: A few days ago the Daily Caller ran a piece on the neologism “cuckservative”, which seems to be exploding all over Twitter as a favorite slur for Trump fans to use against anti-Trump Republicans. The word, a portmanteau of “cuckold” and “conservative”, apparently originated in (and until very recently was unheard outside of) the darkest and slimiest corners of the white-supremacist and neo-fascist Web.

        This is who Trump’s base are…

      • Doug says:

        Do you guys really believe what you’re writing?

    • Rob Ambrose says:

      My guess is this will make him even worse.

      You could tell that he wished he hadn’t said the McCain thing. He was loathe to full on apologize but he clearly tried to backtrack. I th8ng even he realized he’d gone too far.

      But now that he hasn’t been punished for it in the polls, that can only embolden him and give him the sense that he, The Donald, is bulletproof.

      I expect even more outrageous comments in the near future.

  9. RightonRush says:

    The Republican Party’s image has grown more negative over the first half of this year. Currently, 32% have a favorable impression of the Republican Party, while 60% have an unfavorable view. Favorable views of the GOP have fallen nine percentage points since January. The Democratic Party continues to have mixed ratings (48% favorable, 47% unfavorable).

  10. Rob Ambrose says:

    Lafayette PD with an update, the shooter bought the gun himself legally at a pawn shop in Alabama.

    Thanks to the NRA for pouring millions into convincing the rubes that even the SLIGHTEST bit of sensible gun restrictions means that “the gub’mint is comin’ for the guns!!!”

    A man whose been involuntarily commited to a mental institution, wit a history of domestic abuse AND whose ex wife took out a restraining order against him was able to legally buy the gun that killed 2 people. What a disgrace.

  11. tuttabellamia says:

    Click on “Older Comments” at the bottom of the page, under Fifty’s post. I don’t know why they were separated.

  12. rightonrush says:

    Where did all the comments go?

  13. fiftyohm says:

    3 September, 2016. Be a nice birthday present!

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