Texas Republicans apologize to illegal immigrants

Hiding in the 40-page wasteland of paranoia and conspiracy theories that the Texas Republican Party published as its platform is a strange gem. On page 38, wedged between a recitation of Republican delusions about Benghazi and newly draconian language on immigration sits this:

The Republican Party of Texas endorses and supports the Proposed Congressional Apology to the Chinese Americans for governmental actions that denied equal rights to and adversely harmed the Chinese in America.

How that immigration “apology tour” plank made it into the platform one can only guess. Clearly, the platform itself is less a statement of the party’s core proposals than a collection of sweepings from the convention floor. There were bound to be some anomalies. That said, this little ignored provision may be surprisingly timely, even prescient.

The last time we updated our immigration scheme Reagan was in the White House. Nearly half the world, including Nicaragua, was controlled by Communists. Guatemala and El Salvador were battling Communist guerrillas. You still needed a border stamp to cross any European national boundary. We lived in a world in which both capital and labor faced serious constraints when they attempted to travel the world.

The Immigration Reform and Control Act of 1986 was a good idea, but it was largely a failure. The Act sought to limit the incentives to illegal immigration, impose an appropriate set of punishments on those who had flouted immigration laws, and along with those punishments, establish a path to legitimacy for those who deserved it, described as “amnesty.”

It did not make any attempt to create credible paths for legal immigration, a step desperately needed then and even more critical now. More importantly, the only really effective component of the Act was the path to citizenship. Efforts to create meaningful deterrents to hiring illegal workers were watered down beyond enforceability. Criminal penalties on employers could only be imposed under standards impossible to prove. As a result, the Act functioned as nothing more than a one-time amnesty, deferring our immigration policy challenges.

Beneath all the paranoid rancor over illegal immigration from Latin America sits an uncomfortable fact – there is no organized method of legal immigration to the US. Unless you have family here or you can get an increasingly precious corporate sponsorship, you are not coming to America without breaking the law. That is a problem and that problem is not close to being addressed.

The 1986 reforms did not even attempt to create any paths to legitimate immigration. It was an issue too contentious to address. We are still living under a bizarre, racist and ultimately pointless regimen of immigration quotas first devised as an anti-immigration tactic in the 1920’s. In 1990 we raised the cap on annual legal immigration to a whopping 700,000. That’s it. A nation of more than 330,000,000 million people with the most dynamic economy on the planet permits fewer than a million people to immigrate here legally every year.

We need immigrants. Immigration is fuel for a dynamic economy. We need doctors, scientists and computer programmers, but that’s not all. Skilled immigration will not meet all our needs.

We need the kind of people willing to trek across a desert to make a better life for their families. No one started their life as a doctor or scientist. This country was not built on boutique immigration. It was built by tough, sometimes desperate people who would work hard in pursuit of a dream. We will do ourselves a terrible disservice trying to cherry-pick immigrants.

To benefit from immigration we need a system that extends legal protection to migrants and accepts enough of them to meet our economic demands. Without access to the protections and accountability that comes from legal, documented status, immigrants undermine our labor markets and strain public services. With the right levels of accountability and without nativist efforts to hold down numbers, a freer system of documented immigration could bring massive economic improvements.

How many immigrants can we absorb each year? Ask yourself how many new businesses and taxpayers we can absorb. How much economic growth can we absorb? The logical flaw is embedded in the question itself. The assumption that immigration is somehow dangerous and destabilizing is one of the most maddening falsehoods that still lingers in our political ecosystem.

Won’t immigrants “take” American jobs? We set a fixed annual quota on the number of people we will accept as immigrants each year, but there is no fixed number of jobs in our economy. Jobs are created by ambitious people, many of whom create their own work. Republicans tend to be remarkably optimistic about the power of markets to regulate themselves until the subject pivots to immigration.

If we had a system that made it very difficult to hire illegal migrants and made it very easy for ambitious people to come here, why wouldn’t markets decide the right level of immigration? The answers people give to this question can tell an interesting, sometimes dark story.

We cannot muster the political willpower to build a sensible, pro-immigration legal framework because our talk about American principles too often outruns our faith in them. In their platform, Texas Republicans are finally ready to apologize to the Chinese for the ways we punished their efforts to come here and help make us rich and powerful. The same document seeks to impose a similar regime on Latin American migrants, driven by the same delusions, catering to the same racist fears.

What will the 2080 Texas Republican Party platform say about Rick Perry’s trip to the border? Lo siento, amigos.

We do not have to wait for history to judge us. We could decide to do something now.

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Posted in Immigration

Are we richer than we think?

Where have you read this before:

The physical economy is anemic, struggling, biased toward inflation, and shrinking in many developed countries. Almost everything we do in the physical economy is paid for with money. We use dollars to measure most of the activity. If more dollars are spent or earned, we conclude that the economy is growing.

The virtual economy is robust, biased toward deflation, and growing at staggering rates, everywhere. A lot of the services provided to us in the virtual economy are free. If we paid dollars for those services, they would be counted as part of the GDP and would add to economic growth. But we don’t so they are not counted.

Using the virtual economy in place of the physical economy enables consumers to save lots of money. For example, consumers can substitute Google News for their newspaper. The cost of a USA Today subscription is $275. His earnings will look the same, but he has more money at his disposal and more or less the same consumption. Essentially, he is earning more, but neither his income nor GDP will show it.

Bill Davidow, in an article at The Atlantic, has touched one of the fundamental problems complicating our efforts to adapt to a post-Cold War world. Our metrics don’t work.

The vast, accelerating revolution in information technology has produced improvements in our lifestyles which, while impressive, are also radically deflationary. When millions of people shift to buying cheaper ebooks instead of traditional print books they create exciting new markets with new opportunities for authors to bypass literary gatekeepers and reach a new audience. They also create a giant hole in economic output by traditional measures.

As I’ve pointed out before, a new car bought this year typically costs slightly less in inflation-adjusted terms than it did thirty years ago. That vehicle has a slew of features from safety measures to a Bluetooth phone connection that didn’t even exist back then, but that lower price results in a drop in measured output. We can expect to see a similar dynamic in healthcare as higher rates of insurance coverage begin driving down medical costs. We are experiencing a revolution in the economic value available to everyone, sometimes free, that shows up in our economic metrics as declining output.

Economists have been mulling this problem for a while, but it will be tough to fix it. Economics as a discipline has biases built into its foundations that feed this distorted understanding of value. Until we devise an alternative, GDP will be yet another example of the ways that Economics is failing us.

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Posted in Economics

Surprise: Slashing Governing Income Slashes Government Income

It wasn’t so long ago that Republicans were genuinely the party of fiscal responsibility. Ronald Reagan, who presumably now occupies a throne at the right hand of The Lord, raised taxes eleven times over the course of his Presidency.

Why did he do something so foul? Because his original tax cutting plan generated the highest budget deficits the nation had ever seen in peacetime. Back then that sort of thing really upset Republicans.

The same dynamic has played out over and over again, yet Republicans continue to tell themselves that tax cuts make the sky rain money. Kansas is the latest and most celebrated example, though Texas residents have their own story to tell.

Kansas Republican Sam Brownback was elected Governor in the 2010 Tea Party wave. He immediately set to work “fixing” a state that had actually weathered the economic collapse fairly well. On the principle that taxes make Baby Jesus cry, Brownback, facing the specter of a remarkably large budget surplus, passed the largest tax cut in the state’s history. He boldly predicted a new era of economic growth and “fiscal responsibility.”

It turns out that when you slash government revenues, the result is a dramatic reduction in government revenues, something no one could have anticipated. The state is now running hundreds of millions of dollars in deficits, and will soon exhaust the surpluses built up in the dark era when the Communistic Democrats held the Governor’s office, despite the consequences of the economic collapse.

But the economy must be booming, right? Well, no. Job growth in Kansas has lagged behind the rest of the country while education and other key government services have been slashed. More interesting though is the general trend. The tax cuts, at least so far, seem to have no effect at all on general economic activity. That’s interesting and important.

Despite all the hullabaloo about places like Texas and Kansas that have been attacking government, the biggest economic drivers in recent years have been places like New York City and the San Francisco Bay Area. They led the way in the recovery of real estate prices and they are leading the way in wealth, job growth and general economic activity just like they did before the crash. Needless to say, these are high tax, high-regulation regions.

The net of it seems to be that marginal tax rates do not actually matter much in terms of economic growth. People don’t locate their business in San Francisco because they love being micro-regulated any more than place their business in Lubbock for the freedom. Economic decision-making is more complex than that.

Governments that want to create an environment friendly for business need a long term balance between effective, limited regulation, infrastructure, education, education, education, and education. Kansas’ experiment in tax cutting is unlikely to move the economic needle one way or the other.

So who is to blame for the collapse in government revenues that has resulted from slashing government revenues? The same force that causes floods, earthquakes, unintended pregnancy, the rising popularity of soccer, and declining church attendance – Obama. Gov. Brownback blamed the state’s lagging economy and collapsing tax revenues on the far right’s default excuse for everything. I’m not making this up, here’s what he said:

What we are seeing today is the effect of tax increases implemented by the Obama administration that resulted in lower income tax payments and a depressed business environment

‘Natch! Obama is clearly to blame for everything that has happened to our country except for a record bull market in stocks, four straight years of employment growth, declining budget deficits, a new real estate boom, declining health care costs, and the radical drop in the number of uninsured.

Our last reasonably competent President was a Republican who described supply-side theory as “Voodoo Economics.” It turns out that Art Laffer was wrong and George H.W. Bush was right. Laffer has continued to be wrong over and over again, disastrously, with no negative consequences. Why do people keep listening to this crap?

First of all, it just sounds so good. More importantly though, since the Dixiecrats bedded down at the center of the Republican Party, no one actually cares anymore about making government work. Truth be told, there are very few idiots who actually believe Arthur Laffer’s ridiculous theories, it’s just that no one on the right cares that they are false.

Back in 1981 when we first rolled out Laffer to justify a tax cut, the top marginal rate was over 70% and the country was being strangled in government regulation. Within a couple of years after that tax restructuring, Reagan was already looking for ways to shore up government revenues and repair the widening deficits he had created.

Republicans in that era were not trying to re-fight the Civil War. They wanted to change the balance between government and individual power, but they did not genuinely view government as an enemy. Those days are long gone and the goals over the conservative movement have evolved. Neo-Confederates couldn’t care less whether tax cuts pay for themselves. Central government is the enemy in any of its potential forms. Whatever weakens government is a good idea.

So you can be sure that the Kansas fiscal disaster, just like the similar disaster a few years ago in Texas, will be re-branded by the right as a Kansas miracle. When your only goal is a crippled government, the bar is pretty low and the facts don’t matter. Just one more indication among many that these are not your grandfather’s Republicans.

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Posted in Economics, Taxes, Tea Party

The story of our era in a single image

jihad

Some Tea Party idiot posted a picture of herself on Twitter with gun, Bible and flag in celebration of Hobby Lobby’s victory for liberty. Then ‘something amazing happened.’

Can’t figure out who actually produced this pitch-perfect meme, but when a historian someday writes the definitive history of America in the first quarter of the 21st Century, this will appear on the cover.

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Posted in Religion, Tea Party

Freedom Riders

freedom

“If these children were from Canada, we would not be having this interview”

A busload of desperate refugee children were being transferred this week from overcrowded facilities in South Texas to a location in California. They were greeted by a white mob blocking the road to the processing center. Morons chanting “impeach Obama” forced the buses to turn away.

Welcome to the arms of America.

Jeb Bush was right when he spoke about immigration reform this spring. It has probably ended his political career. Let’s review the sane, rational, measured comments that probably disqualified him for the Republican nomination:

“But the way I look at this — and I’m going to say this, and it’ll be on tape and so be it. The way I look at this is someone who comes to our country because they couldn’t come legally, they come to our country because their families — the dad who loved their children — was worried that their children didn’t have food on the table. And they wanted to make sure their family was intact, and they crossed the border because they had no other means to work to be able to provide for their family. Yes, they broke the law, but it’s not a felony. It’s an act of love. It’s an act of commitment to your family. I honestly think that that is a different kind of crime that there should be a price paid, but it shouldn’t rile people up that people are actually coming to this country to provide for their families.”

The racists who have hijacked our immigration policy like to claim that they embrace immigration so long as it done “legally” through the “proper channels.” This infuriating lie is the cousin of the deceptive rhetoric used in the gun control debate about “enforcing existing gun laws.”

Let’s remember a few details from the real world. For refugees, which is the status that many of these children will qualify for, this is the legal way. They are fleeing. Based on US and international law, they are being processed legally. When their status is determined, the law will determine how they are dealt with.

And for prospective immigrants to the US who are not refugees, there is no legal way. That’s the dumb reality behind the racist lies about immigration. That’s why so many people are working so hard to change the shape of our immigration laws in the face of resistance motivated by paranoia and deception.

There is no practical, workable way for people who do not have family in the US to immigrate here. Period. We have millions of illegal immigrants in the US because we have provided no realistic method to come here legally and no realistic means to punish those who exploit illegal migrants.

For almost a decade we have been tantalizingly close to ending this stupid, cruel, and utterly unnecessary standoff. Each time we get close, panicked mobs manage to shut the process down. Our first step, they say, has to be “securing the border.”

Unfortunately, “securing the border” in immigration rhetoric means “stopping brown people from coming here.” Have you tried to cross the border lately? We already have the most heavily militarized border of any free country on Earth not at war.

That’s why we can’t actually adopt sensible changes that would make our border crossings more orderly and stop the kind of senseless misery that our current legal limbo inspires. No law that would let people come here from Latin America legally will satisfy the racist fears of the mobs blocking those buses. They will pay any economic or moral price to protect what little remains of their cultural supremacy.

More sophisticated immigration reform opponents have cited the need to avoid attracting the “wrong kind” of immigrants. After all, those poor huddled masses don’t fund Internet startups. We want engineers and doctors.

That’s true, it’s legitimate, and that goal can be accomplished with a reasonable policy, but it’s also important to remember some things about those “less desirable” immigrants. That’s who we are. My ancestors didn’t come here because America craved their mad skills. With vanishingly few exceptions, neither did yours.

People with good jobs, solid skills, and lots of money living in stable successful countries very rarely become immigrants. Being a nation of immigrants means being a haven for people who are fleeing from crazy, screwed-up situations. It means welcoming people in desperate straits who have the grit, determination and relentless drive to make things better for their families. And guess what, a few dozen racist idiots are not going to stop people like that. We want people like that. We, as Americans, ARE people like that.

The folks standing in front of those buses are going to fail. That’s one of the more comforting realities about America. Whether next week or in a few years, America is going to adopt an immigration scheme that will embrace Latin American migrants and give them a path to citizenship. The economic and cultural incentives are too massive to ignore and the dangers are fantasy-based.

The political physics behind this are inevitable. All the remains to be seen is how long it will take and who will benefit. This 4th of July let’s celebrate the birthday of America, “The Mother of Exiles.”

Not like the brazen giant of Greek fame,
With conquering limbs astride from land to land;
Here at our sea-washed, sunset gates shall stand
A mighty woman with a torch, whose flame
Is the imprisoned lightning, and her name
Mother of Exiles. From her beacon-hand
Glows world-wide welcome; her mild eyes command
The air-bridged harbor that twin cities frame.
“Keep ancient lands, your storied pomp!” cries she
With silent lips. “Give me your tired, your poor,
Your huddled masses yearning to breathe free,
The wretched refuse of your teeming shore.
Send these, the homeless, tempest-tost to me,
I lift my lamp beside the golden door!”

 

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Posted in Immigration

The best reply to Coates’ reparations article

A lot has been written about Ta-Nehisi Coates’ article in The Atlantic on reparations, but there haven’t been many coherent critiques. Coates made criticism pretty difficult first of all by producing what may be the best magazine length work on race in America that anyone has ever written. But he also introduced a sort of rhetorical sleight of hand that made it difficult to respond to his central thesis.

Coates didn’t get bogged down endorsing any potential program of reparations. He merely laid out the moral case. Most critiques have foundered by taking his bait, focusing on the practical impossibility of delivering reparations and missing the real power of Coates argument. Along the way, almost everyone who tried to take him on fell into some version of the “it wasn’t so bad” trap.

When in trouble, look to a nerd.

Economist Noah Smith, who also writes for The Atlantic, has been one of Coates’ more pointed critics for some time. In a short piece he takes much of the punch out of Coates’ thesis without wasting energy trying to diminish the power of Coates’ case. Smith focuses on the flaws of reparations on a moral rather than a practical level.

Smith argues that the pursuit of reparations is itself a kind of energy-wasting trap. He gives several reasons, but the 3rd carries the most punch:

Reason 3: Because good things can never make up for bad things 100%. I think this is just how human psychology works. If your parents beat you and then buy you ice cream and apologize then no matter how much ice cream they buy you, or how much they apologize, there will always be that memory of them beating you.

The danger of reparations is in its focus on the past. There is no justice or restoration in the past. A past denied carries a festering sore into the present. What was done must be dealt with. By the same token though, picking at the scab doesn’t help. At some point there must be a determination to conquer the past by building a brighter future.

From Smith

Over the years, I’ve come to realize this: Escape is the only true revenge. If African Americans can live good lives, and can be fully incorporated into the fabric of American society and American institutions, then the bad guys lost.

And that’s got to be good enough. Or else nothing will be.

Well said.

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Posted in Civil Rights

Unions are not going to help workers now

Ask a Democrat what created the American Middle Class and many of them will answer: “Unions.” Organized labor gave factory workers badly needed leverage in negotiations with capital owners at a time when government refused to use its power to help them. Armed with that power, unions negotiated working terms and wages that made it possible for laborers to enjoy a decent standard of living.

Now, as the rapidly accelerating pace of technology and automation are eroding demand for low-skill jobs and delivering higher and higher returns to a few, could workers benefit from a new push toward unionization? The answer is “no,” and that answer has serious implications for policy and politics.

The purpose of a union is to provide employees with the bargaining leverage they need to secure reasonable working conditions and compensation. This was particularly important in an industrial setting where human labor was little more than an extension of a factory’s machines.

Each individual employee swinging a hammer was what economists call “fungible” – what he or she offered in value was indistinguishable from the value offered by the next person in line. There was very little about the labor being performed in most industrial era settings that would encourage owners to compete for a specific employee. Workers were as replaceable as a pair of gloves.

Fungible labor set up a permanent downward bidding war in which employers had every incentive to set compensation and working conditions ever lower. By collaborating in unions, workers could apply pressure on capital owners to counter their bargaining weakness. In an atmosphere in which there was virtually no support from government to protect worker’s rights and labor itself was entirely fungible, unions were the key to creation of a decent way of life.

For their time, unions were an innovation that helped ordinary people enjoy a greater share of the wealth generated by industrialization and created a decent life for millions of people.

Many people blame outsourcing and international competition for the decline of labor unions, but that claim misses the more fundamental economic changes that brought those dynamics about. Two very important things have changed in our economy that have undermined the value of unions and converted them into a death sentence for businesses that must work with them.

First, the rise of state regulation of working conditions made the most important work of a union redundant. With a wage floor, safety regulations, workers compensation, universal public education, Social Security, and other state interventions, much of the value unions were organized to deliver became redundant.

Regulation was more attractive than unions in many ways because it imposed a uniform set of conditions on all employers, creating a scenario in which every firm competed on the same level field. In order to maintain their appeal to members, unions evolved into a general buffer between employees and management, adding dense layers of bureaucracy to even the most routine hiring, firing, and administrative decisions.

Add to that the second factor, the rise of automation and information-based competition, and you get a deadly cocktail. The rise of the knowledge economy and the sudden, dramatic expansion in the range of activities vulnerable to automation created a dynamic that killed off union-bound organizations. If every change in work hours, labor force or job descriptions requires a new collective bargaining agreement, it will be impossible to keep pace with innovations that radically reduce manufacturing costs and introduce more rapid adaptive capabilities.

Companies free from the straightjacket of a collective bargaining agreement can change more quickly, adopting new, leaner practices. Employees in the emerging knowledge fields earned more by their own efforts than by collaboration in a union. No matter how well-managed, innovative, or responsible, competitors saddled with collective bargaining agreements drag behind, unable to lower their costs or develop new value fast enough to compete.

In some cases work is shipped overseas where labor is cheaper and less effectively organized, but we are discovering that this is merely an intermediate step in the decline of this workforce. Firms like Nike are already laying off hundreds of thousands of contract workers in the developing world as the race toward higher efficiency and adaptability makes automation more attractive than even the cheapest low-skilled labor. China-based Foxconn, manufacturer of the iPhone and one of the largest commercial employers in the world, is collaborating with Google on a long-term automation project that would eliminate hundreds of thousands of factory jobs.

Innovation, not outsourcing, is the root factor in the decline of manufacturing employment in the US. More restrictive laws and collective bargaining will not help. Market conditions are changing in ways that make low-skilled, undifferentiated inherently less valuable. Those same forces are opening up new opportunities for far more rewarding work, but gaining access to that work is more challenging. That condition is just as relevant in China as it is in Detroit.

The bulk of jobs that benefit most from unionization are simply disappearing. They aren’t merely going overseas. They are going away.

The low wage jobs that remain are mostly in service industries like fast food and retail. We could pressure those industries to unionize, but we would merely be repeating the dynamic that favored non-union companies in manufacturing fields. The problem with unions is that they are too bureaucratic and slow to survive in a highly dynamic economy. Protecting jobs and lifestyles in the information age with unions built to work under industrial conditions is like trying to grab water in your fists.

Pressure to capitalize on the increasing power of automation would only be accelerated by unions. Along the way, a push toward unionization would stifle the wealth-generating power of the economy without halting any of the forces that are driving low-skilled work out of existence. Unions would offer nothing more than stagnation and mediocrity as a fleeting bulwark against the relentless tide of economic dynamism. If we are going to improve living conditions, opportunity, and rewards for those who do not make it into knowledge careers or entrepreneurship, we need an alternative to organized labor.

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Posted in Economics

The New Texas GOP Platform – Now with More Crazy!

It gets better every election cycle.

After holding it back for a couple of weeks to let the attention die down, the Texas GOP released their shiny new 2014 platform this week and it’s a humdinger. There is probably a current conspiracy theory out there somewhere that didn’t make into the platform’s 40 pages, but if so I’m unaware of it.

If you enjoy reading legal petitions submitted by mental patients you’re in for a treat.

Question: Why does the Texas GOP consistently allow its convention to produce a platform so utterly ridiculous that few of their candidates and officials can afford to embrace it?

 

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Posted in Texas

The bright spot in the Iraq implosion

When David Frum counsels against a military intervention, that’s a pretty strong warning signal. Frum’s article arguing for caution in propping up the Iraqi government is one of the best assessments of the situation you’ll find anywhere.

Frum’s thesis is based on the realization that the government that emerged from our adventure in Iraq is at least as hostile to American interests as the one we fought to replace. We toppled a secular dictator deeply at odds with all of his neighbors in order to create a fundamentalist Shiite Islamic dictatorship closely aligned with Iran and Syria. Mission Accomplished.

That regime is now threatened by blowback from its deep involvement in Syria’s civil war. Before we decide on a response we have a decision to make. We must determine whether it makes any difference which variation of dictatorship emerges next in Iraq and to what extent we are willing to help the Iranians prop up their favorite client state.

Now, the most extreme and brutal of the anti-regime forces inside Syria has turned against Maliki. He is seeking American help, and Maliki’s patrons in Tehran appear content to see the United States rescue their client. According to some reports, the Iranians view U.S. aid to Maliki as a strategic partnership that could smooth the way to a nuclear deal more favorable to them.

Is this situation not utterly upside down? It’s Iran that has a vital interest in the survival of Maliki, not the United States. It’s Iran that should be entreating the U.S. for assistance to Maliki—and Iran that should be expected to pay the strategic price for whatever support Maliki gets.

That’s the gist of it, but Frum throws in the inevitable kink at the end. He mentions that there was one little-recognized bright spot that emerged from the catastrophe of the Iraq War. Among the proponents of an aggressive American global power , the Kurds are their third-favorite people on the planet.

The United States failed in its most ambitious objective: establishing a stable, Western-oriented government for all of Iraq. It did, however, succeed in establishing a stable, Western-oriented government in a part of Iraq: Kurdistan. Let’s focus resources instead on strengthening our relationship with that impressive enclave—and hope that as much as possible of Iraq’s oil wealth ends up under Kurdish control.

And in this case he’s right. When Iraq falls apart as it inevitably will soon, the Kurds will be prepared to emerge as a nation in their own right since they are already a functioning independent nation in fact. Pro-US, tolerant of Israel, and embracing a moderate Islam, if we carefully protect the Kurds’ ability to operate independently, instead of pouring resources into supporting the Maliki regime, we may actually be able to claim one victory from that mess.

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Posted in Foreign Policy

How democracy works now

For anyone interested in understanding how they might personally wield some influence in politics, the stories emerging from Cantor’s loss are a rich trove of insights. Particularly interesting is this piece in the Washington Post published by a young Democratic political volunteer. He helped organize a left-right collaboration between Democrats and Tea Party Republicans in Cantor’s district that gave Cantor’s challenger access to badly needed tactical resources.

The truth is that Cantor’s electoral demise did not occur overnight. It was the culmination of more than four years of grass-roots organizing, from both the right and the left, to unseat him. Behind the scenes, Cantor opponents who otherwise had little ideological common ground cooperated in his demise. I know, because I helped engineer it.

So how did fire-eyed Tea Partiers and East Coast leftists manage to meet and find common ground? It wasn’t easy.

After Cantor’s 2010 victory, a group of anti-Cantor activists from both left and right met in person to discuss campaigning against the man who would soon be majority leader. We met several times over two weeks at coffee shops and pubs in strip malls throughout the Richmond suburbs. At first, we were suspicious that one side was trying manipulate the other, but soon we developed a sense of trust over our shared frustrations with Cantor.

How did their alliance influence the course of the 2014 campaign:

We shared data-science techniques for voter targeting and for evaluating the relative cost of earning the votes of different types of voters.

There was a problem: the-easiest-to-use political data is owned by the two major political parties. The Democratic campaign was over, so how could we ethically share information that we thought would serve the greater good? Stevens used his statistical knowledge and near-photographic memory to work from crude, publicly available State Board of Elections data, then manipulate those data into targeted sets of voters more like those that would be available to a large campaign from one of the two parties. He created tidy data sets of voter information and preferences of a sort typically unavailable to independent or insurgent campaigns opposed by a party establishment (like Mr. Brat’s this year).

It’s an interesting look at how the sausage is made. It’s also a very insightful peek at the way American politics is coming to resemble the coalition politics of Western Europe even without a parliamentary system.

 

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Posted in Political Theory
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