Thanks a lot Indiana.
The race for the delegate count is effectively over. Trump will almost certainly gain the numbers he needs to win on a first ballot – if everyone cooperates in Cleveland.
Odds are pretty good that over the next few weeks most of the #NeverTrump holdouts will surrender. Expect to see a string of comments that start with, “but, Hillary…”
However, there’s still a possibility that a cluster of Trump’s putative delegates will refuse to cooperate on the convention floor. The vast majority of delegates assigned to Trump on a first ballot would rather eat a live frog than vote for him. There’s no sheriff who can force people into line at the convention. We’ll see. Then again, frog can be tasty if properly prepared.
I won’t be going along. If Trump is the nominee and the Republican Party in Illinois lines up behind him, then that’s the end of this Lifer’s term. I’ll resign my precinct position and move on. Time to start thinking of a new name for a blog, or a new interest to absorb my brain cycles.
I would just like to point out that we are now getting at least somewhat mainstream GOPers (Gov. Perry, Governor of Nebraska, etc.) coming out to endorse Trump, and this is going to grow as time goes on.
At the same time, the FBI is getting ready to interview Hillary about the email thing. Earlier this week, the hacker who spilled a ton of documents said he was able to hack Hillary’s server twice. There is probably nothing there in reality, but we are certainly going to hear about it on TV.
Trump a television personality, and we need to understand that he very likely has the ability to change the tone, change the focus, and change his positions just about any time he wants.
Trump is the least favorably viewed candidate in the history of us evaluating favorability. Hillary is the second least favorable candidate in the history of us evaluating favorability.
Who do you think has the bigger window to turn that around? The person who has the ability to change their position in mid-sentence or the person who is easily the most disliked political figure in the last 25 years?
The American people have remarkably short memories, and now Trump is going to start getting more and more help from political professionals in the campaign.
I hope the American people are smart about this, but I have no evidence that that is going to be the case.
Homer, you might find this analysis interesting of Trump’s path to winning. The Clinton email thing is a heavy unknown………
We’ve talked about “wild cards”. If the economy “stalls”, that will hurt the incumbent party. As the NYT article points out, “any” event that can be used to reinforce a narrative that Democratic policy is not helping the economy and thus its “people” will be parsed in great detail over the next 6 months leading to the Nov. general.
Well, here is this story:
“North Carolina Donald Trump-supporting tow truck driver says God told him to abandon a disabled Bernie supporter”
I am almost want to vote against that self absorbed sonofab***h this November just because of this story about the tow truck driver.
I imagine I’m not the only one.
Wow. I’m almost speechless. There is a prime candidate for the sort of public shaming that only the Internet can unleash. Don’t threaten the guy, just let the world now what a total hypocrite and major asshole this guy is, and boycott his business.
I see fruit on the ground for the proxies who wish to attack Trump- Ladies and Gentlemen, welcome to Donald Trump’s vision for America, where it’s cool to be a jerk to people who dare to have different political views.
“A world where it’s cool to be a jerk to…” But, isn’t that precisely what we’ve been witnessing for the past decade? Where everyone from the A-H Limbaugh to Joe Wilson to Turtles to to to in the GOP has said outrageous, insulting, ugly things about our President and gotten kudos from their base? Isn’t that exactly what Trump is doing? Forget decorum, respect for others. This is war. And, it’s personal.
“Almost not wanting to vote (for Trump) this November?” What more will it take?
When I said I almost want to vote against Trump just because of the tow truck driver story, that’s not to imply that there are not other valid reasons. There are a mountain of reasons to not vote for that man.
And I am voting… boy am I voting. I want the GOP for every seat in Congress and Senate to take it hard in the family jewels over this debacle.
I have been talking till my voice has gone coarse to my friends to vote.
But how his supporters have been acting… or how people have taken their ques from Trump’s “speeches” really disgusts me.
Trump is a real marvel.
Not only is he a horrible human being, he influences other people to become just as horrible as he is. Never have I’ve seen a politician fuse cruelty and stupidity together in such a perfect union and still succeed in taking over a party/movement.
I am guessing most people here have seen that Trump “Latino-inspired” tweet. The basic message he is giving is “Even though I think most of you are rapists, criminals, murderers, and drug dealers and I want to deport all of you illegals and even your American born children… I still love you and to prove it here is a pic of me eating a taco bowl.”
The king of big finance has a plan.
” I still love you and to prove it here is a pic of me eating a taco bowl.”
And to add that final bit of insult, a review of the taco bowl reveals it to be totally devoid of any spicy goodness.
““A world where it’s cool to be a jerk to…” But, isn’t that precisely what we’ve been witnessing for the past decade? Where everyone from the A-H Limbaugh to Joe Wilson to Turtles to to to in the GOP has said outrageous, insulting, ugly things about our President and gotten kudos from their base? Isn’t that exactly what Trump is doing? Forget decorum, respect for others. This is war. And, it’s personal.”
Indeed 1mime, elRushbo and his ilk planted the field. Trump is there to harvest all that hate. That narrative plays in perfectly to the proxy attack ad I’m imagining.
I now don’t put anything political on my car precisely because of people just like this asshole. But I will endeavor to have more class and not deny someone help because of a Trump bumper sticker.
Here’s the thing about the e-mail- it’s been out there for ages, politically speaking. I strongly suspect if there was really something bad/illegal/real, it would have come out by now. I understand that the possibility of some shocking revelation is not zero, but it’s also highly, highly unlikely at this point. There also the matter of public (other than rabid Hillary haters) fatigue over this. The longer this drags on without any “there” there, the less credence most people give it.
Now the American voting public being being smart or not, that’s the much bigger worry.
We’ve already seen how “close to the truth” can be twisted to a “swift boat” ad…. Here’s what I think is going to happen….Just like the Benghazi Report, the email report will be held until the most “opportune” time in the campaign cycle where it can generate the “most” damage…That would be later, not now. Remember, the conventions haven’t been held and Bernie is in it all the way…Repubs are gonna keep their powder dry….
Events such as the resignation of the Turkish Prime Minister. Davutoğlu leaves in place, with unchecked control, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, who has been a very difficult, unpredictable ally with the U.S. who has demonstrated limited interest in a democratic form of government. This is the kind of event that could roil world events, and certainly impact America’s efforts in the middle east. Lots of things can impact our 2016 General Election and not all of them right here on American soil.
Remember this little exchange:
I think that’s a real measure of how Trump’s base as been so screwed over. Trump’s voicing their frustrations, but he’s not offering much actual substance, Cruz is right that he’s playing them for suckers. His tax plan is just as bad as those of his most recent GOP opponents, in terms of favoring the rich. The only tangible thing I’ve seen is a pledge to not cut Social Security or Medicare (how that works in combination with tax cuts is another story). Sucks for you if the best you’re getting is lip service and the firm possibility of a definite maybe in getting half a crumb.
Despite being a senior who values and receives services and income from SS and Medicare, any candidate who promises to keep these two very important but costly programs from being “cut” (or changed) is lying. A more truthful promise would be to acknowledge their importance and promise to keep these programs as a high fiscal priority, but never promise not to cut them. That’s deceitful or at best, stupid. It’s the “how” they might be changed that is so critical. With a $19-20T federal debt, everything should be on the cutting floor and there should be a re-ordering of priorities based upon many critical factors to include what the majority of the people of America feel is most important. That’s probably a pipe dream but that’s what ought to happen. It’s called: zero-based budgeting. Even if it was done once a decade, it should be done. I’m not in favor of a balanced budget restriction because “stuff” happens (wars, weather, disease, etc) but we have got to move towards more fiscal sanity.
Ex-Guv Perry is open to being Trump’s VP. http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/278942-rick-perry-will-support-trump
I think you are going to start seeing more and more of this.
As we get into the summer and fall, and Trump is within 5 points of Hillary (or leading), then all these #nevertrump folks are going to suddenly find Trump much more reasonable and “Presidential”.
Politicians can be so patently transparent and duplicitous…..That’s another reason Sanders and Trump have such appeal – speaking out – no holds barred….only big difference is that Sanders is the real mccoy – Trump is pandering.
A heartbeat away from being POTUS…shudder.
Yeah, well, Trump can have ‘im. Perry likes to work “with” the government….more than he likes working “for” government…..Don’t see the match but didn’t see Trump either so….
The GOP turning its back on Trump pisses me off more than Trump himself.
The cartoon below of the Lincoln statue pisses me off. Why the hell were people OK with the shit Cruz has been saying, the stuff Romney said, the stuff McCain said but not Trump? The messenger may be an ass, but the message is the same.
He may be somewhat indelicate about it, but Trump’s positions generally align with a whole slew of GOP leadership and GOP voters.
Build a wall with Mexico?
John McCain has a video ad saying, “Build that dang wall”, and countless GOP leaders and voters say the same thing.
Romney wanted a wall and more border guards to guard it.
Deport 11 million undocumented immigrants?
Cruz wants the same thing, and Trump at least lets them re-apply to come back to the US. Cruz wouldn’t even let them do that.
Want to guess the number of GOP leaders and voters favor deportation?
Romney and others want to make life so difficult for them that they “self-deport”
Every freakin’ GOP candidate endorsed banning Muslims from Syria from entering the US, with Cruz and Bush saying they would let in Christians from Syria (as if there is a freakin’ test) but not Muslims.
A couple of dozen GOP governors said they would not allow Muslim immigrants into their states
Trump was just mouthing off and included all Muslims, not just Syrians, but that is a different in magnitude, not in kind.
Plus, a large majority of GOP voters agreed with the ban.
Admiration of Putin?
Hell, 75% of FoxNews talking heads love Putin.
If anything, Trump might be too liberal on social issues because he doesn’t care where transgendered folks pee.
Lifer – I love this blog and I love you, and to your credit, you’ve been railing on these things for a while, but other than being a carnival barker asshat and probably being unlikely to find Syria on a map, Trump is generally just parroting the GOP standard lines for the past eight years.
Other than the presentation, I’m not sure a President Trump’s positions are wildly different than a President Romney’s positions.
“Packaging, Homer. Packaging.”
The offensive part is protectionism, standing up for blue collar workers, and not wanting to let people die on the street.
“..Trump is generally just parroting the GOP standard lines for the past eight years.”
His greatest sin (from the GOPe perspective) seems to be doing that parroting at 15 Hz instead of the approved 35 Hz. I will agree that he won it fair and square by the rules the party has in place. But I have a very hard time feeling much anger when a bad person gets treated badly. I tend to save it for when the good person is being treated badly, with one Merrick Garland being a prime example.
GOPe, the equal opportunity jerks
The difference is he seems to actually believe in it, rather than just be appealing to the base.
There’s a difference between appealing to racists and being a racist. Taking advantage of racists is okay; being a racist (by, say, Tweeting I LOVE HISPANICS while eating a taco bowl) is not.
Crap, saying “I love Hispanics” is racist! It’s like saying “I love Asians” or “I love black people”; it is just really tone-deaf, and acts as though they are all one unified mass. It is stereotyping.
Also, I don’t think McCain or Romney admire Putin.
“Taking advantage of racists is okay; being a racist […] is not.”
Are you speaking for the party’s approach or just in general? Because in general, no, taking advantage of racism is not okay for two reasons:
1) Taking advantage of people is not okay.
2) Enabling racism is still racism.
I do not believe Trump believes this stuff nearly as much as Cruz believes this stuff.
Trump’s had his positions for all of five political minutes, and they will change with the wind as the general election blows in.
Do you think Trump thought anything about Muslims other than “Arabs have money” until late last year?
Trump’s position on Mexicans in specific and Hispanics in general was, “hey, they build my buildings” until he started running for President.
He undoubtedly has a less-than-current view of women, but I don’t think he generally cares one way or another about specific policies that affect women.
Trump’s an ass, and he knows he’s an ass, but he’s not stupid, and he knows how to play to a crowd.
It’s cyanide vs arsenic Homer. I suppose Cruz is the cyanide, as that kills faster.
But, but, but, he’s from “NEW YORK CITY!”
So much has been said during this election cycle it’s difficult to keep track of who and where, but I do remember when Bloomberg was threatening a third party run in the case of Trump v. Sanders, and someone, I believe a 538 writer, pointed out, “for a race that seemed likely to be a showdown between a Latino and a woman, this race could certainly surprise us with three angry white dudes from New York.”
Being that Hillary is also from New York, it’s interesting how much the city has dominated this election cycle, including the fact that the one guy who really challenged it (Cruz) got smacked, hard, for it, both verbally by Trump and politically by the voters.
Actually, Hillary Clinton grew up in the Chicago area. Her stint in NY was involved with her desire to seek a senator position in proximity to D.C. Their home is there now.
The whole “New York values” thing is just reverse elitism from the crowd who claims that the only “Real Anericans” hail from rural areas/small towns, vote GOP, and it’s strongly implied that they are also White and Christian. No city or town or state is any more or any less American than any other city or town or state.
Cruz was deservedly burned for such a stupid faux pass.
Trump is comedy gold, especially if you like your humor on the dark side.
Let us all hope that we are laughing at the end of the 2016 campaign, and not moaning.
Hey, I was an out gay man during the Reagan administration and lived thru it. About 300,000 AIDS victims (just counting the ones dead during his reign) can’t make that claim. Trump does not scare me.
Yeah, I guess that experience would give you a suit of emotional armour that the rest of us can’t imagine. As the father of a gay teenager. my wife & I have told him that as bad as it may be (and so far it’s mostly been no big deal), he’s got it much better than those of previous generations. Tip o’ the hat from me to someone who, in some small way. made my son’s life a bit better.
That’s nice, JK. Your son is lucky to have such a loving, accepting dad.
I do hope you continue to blog. You have some very good insights into the political culture of the US at this time. It is very unfortunate that Mr. Trump did ride the dissatisfaction in this country to the presumed nomination. However, that is not surprising considering that the Republican party adopted the Southern Strategy 36 years ago and has been using “dog whistle” politics to maintain its grip on power. Meanwhile once the elections are over with they continue with the “Ayn Randian” approach of cutting taxes for the wealthy, while cutting infrastructure investment, education, social services increasing defense spending, pursuing global hegemony, structuring the tax code to encourage overseas investment and enabling the wealthy to accrue ever greater amounts of wealth. All this while enormously increasing deficit spending and piling up huge debts. Finally the base of the Republican party got fed up with this and selected a Demagogue like Donald Trump. I truly believe that it will be a totally different matter in the general election.
Also, I find the reaction of the Republican Establishment to be enlightening. They seem to be intent on accepting a major presidential defeat this year while protecting the House and the Senate majorities as much as possible. After the election, all indications are that they intend to resume their present policy of obstructionism while doubling down on the “Ayn Randian” approach to economics, rather than attempting to compromise and pressing for policies that actually benefit the middle class of the U.S. Whether this approach will enable them to win the election of 2018 or not remains to be seen. I personally hope not. Furthermore, I personally believe that utterly losing a minimum of two or three elections will be required for the Republican party to reform. That almost happened in 2006 and 2008, but the blame was placed on George W. Bush and then the election of 2010 was won by the GOP. That reinforced their strategy of doubling down. Now it may take three electoral cycles to prompt the GOP to reform.
Regardless of your decision to stay with the GOP, I truly hope you continue to blog. Your insights and thinking are very insightful and thoughtful. In general, I agree with many of your thoughts, though I am a committed Democrat.
“All this while enormously increasing deficit spending and piling up huge debts.” The irony here is that the GOP has been enormously successful at doing all these things and pinning the blame on the profligate spending of the Democrats! Ya gotta give em credit for their marketing ability, even if it is deceitful.
I also agree with your statement: “After the election, all indications are that they intend to resume their present policy of obstructionism while doubling down on the “Ayn Randian” approach to economics, rather than attempting to compromise…”
The arrogance of the Republican Party is exceeded only by their greed. If Democrats don’t GOTV this election, however, the GOP will assume they can keep on keeping on….
Well, this is mildly entertaining… What do you call a person who looks and acts like a car crash that was wrapped up in a train derailment, who begins to have a mental breakdown and falls into death spiral of despair and disillusionment?
Speaking of “The Politics of Crazy”, Glenn Beck has been acting crazy for some time. He has often engaged in a pretty destructive form of politics and demagoguery. Now he almost seems like he is lurching back toward sanity.
He still can’t see how he has provided fertile soil for someone like Trump by stoking fears, hysteria and outrage at non-existent misdeeds of government, Democrats and Obama.
So as far as full fledged sanity, he obviously isn’t there yet : )
But his statements in this video is really fascinating… like watching a house cat adeptly use a bathroom toilet.
This is pretty significant: Paul Ryan is not going to support Donald Trump.
For now. But he did leave the door open a crack.
You are correct. I failed to acknowledge the “crack”….
Not to worry. He’ll get there. Ryan has the soul of a sycophant. Come November, he’ll be all in.
I’ll give him credit, he has far more smarts than that dumbass McConnell. The savvy politician does not burn all his bridges nor tip his hand prematurely. But even this not completely shut door has got to rankle the short-fingered Orange-complected vulgar one.
Not a single one of the previous living GOP presidential nominees (whether they won or lost) have said they will support Trump: Romney, McCain, and Bush x2 have all publicly announced they will not attend the convention and Dole might attend but has stated only ambivalence towards Trump.
That’s got to be unprecedented in major party politics just about anywhere in the world.
This is the exact reason that I am not a member any political party, and probably never will be- I could not get behind any nominee so objectionable for the sake of party unity.
Unless I am mistaken, I understood that McCain said he would support Trump if he were the GOP nominee?
Actually, 1mime, you’re right. I was reading articles yesterday on the convention (McCain is not going) and his statements that Trump would make his own reelection campaign much more difficult and put two and two together. In this case, I added it up to five. McCain did say he would support the GOP nominee, including Trump. I still think this is pretty unprecedented.
What was disheartening to me was to see Susan Collins state she would support Trump. She’s one of the more rational Repubs up there. It seems that those Repubs who have future Presidential aspirations are being more cautious…..records are carefully crafted and they are very hard to dodge. Paul has done the smart thing – be “cagey” – showing concern but also not abandoning the GOP “support everything even the stupid stuff” mindset.
The final list of who has to rearrange their sock drawer rather than attend the convention will be very illuminating.
Good God almighty Chris, where is an old man to go to read some of the brightest minds on the internet if not here? Does that sound selfish…yes it does but I’m being very honest when I say you have the best blog on the internet IMO.
My favorite blog entries have been about social capital, an idea about which I knew next to nothing. I had always considered the value of people in terms of labor. I had not considered the social networks that are the foundation upon which so much rests and from which so much evolves.
I also like reading about how technological advances are changing the fabric of society. I had always looked at this from a historical perspective. I realize that these changes are taking place NOW. We are in the midst of making history ourselves.
These are not necessarily partisan subjects, so they can still be discussed no matter the state of our political parties, but especially in light of our current situation. They may be the reasons for the current crazy state of our election cycle.
Still, there’s only so much that can be said about a topic before it becomes tiresome, no matter how important that topic may be. I wouldn’t blame Lifer for wanting to give it a rest. He did mention once that he was considering travel writing.
Might I suggest that it this very technology that has contributed so hugely to changes we are witnessing in our political sphere? From “instantaneous” news and reaction, to the ability of millions to respond quickly and broadly, to the capability of reaching people through the internet, to the sheer creativity of the digital process – technology has shaped our culture including politics more so than at any other time. It can be both manipulator and facilitator; a source of information and a platform for action.
Social capital to me means the contributions that human beings bring to the process – of whatever kind. How our culture responds to these contributions – the demands, reward and/or abuse is driven by a moral code that seems to be focused mainly on profits. I lament the fact that people are seen as producers rather than contributors.
What I don’t like is the repetitive nature of political discourse thanks to our new technology. We used to be able to take in a piece of news, plus some expert analysis and commentary, and then maybe we would discuss it at the dinner table or around the water cooler at work.
Now, thanks to the 24/7 news cycle, social media, and constant online commenting, topics are milked to death until we are numb.
Add me to the list of people who don’t want you to go, lifer. I had never considered the ways in which unions could promote institutional racism until you commented on the topic. I still have never seen it discussed elsewhere. Thank you!!
But that’s a function of American culture. I.e its not unions that are racist but some AMWRICAN unions that are, and for reasons that have nothibf to do with the fundamental purpose of unions. Theres nothing inherent about organized labor that fosters racism.
In my native Canada, the same forces are not at work. My whole family was Union workers in Toronto, and there were plenty of ppl of color, up to and including as local boss.
Of course you are right. The unions I had in mind are in American blue cities. I come from ‘Ohio Rubber Union’ territory and am thankful for their help putting food on our table. That said, I can also see how they help to keep the status quo. Still more pro than con but appreciate the new insights from this blog.
Pretty devastating ad by Hillary. This is the kind of stuff hea going to face. And it’s going to be extremely effective.
Everyone’s used to attack ads where a politician says bad things about their opponent. This is just aggregating things the candidate himself has said. Cant really argue with it.
Great ad but it will cut both ways: those who are targeted will be energized; those who agree with the message will be energized. So, we’re back to square one: TURNOUT.
I think it will be effective against undecideds and moderates. Who, frankly, are the ones who decide every presidential election.
And, on the Dem side, have been flocking to Sanders………
For sure Mime, but they’ll vote Hill. Remember how many HRC supporters swore to never Vote Obama? And then something like 95% of Dems did.
Unless HRC refuse to incorporate part of Bernues platform, which she won’t, Sanders supporters (and Sanders himself) will support her.
Remember Sanders and Warren hold very similar views, and she is held in the highest esteem by the Bernie crowd, and she’s going to be a full fledged surrogate over the next few months. Hell, she might even be VP
I’ve been reading your blog for a year, and I hope you don’t give it up. It’s been a great read. You were the first person who gave me a good explanation of institutional racism, and I’m in your debt for that.
As for leaving your post as a precinct captain, aren’t there a lot of other candidates who could use your help? Especially so now because they have to deal with someone at the top of the ticket with negative coattails.
Oh, this is goooood….NC Governor McCrory says the Justice Dept/O administration is “over-reaching” with their ruling asserting that the state’s legislation regarding transgender bathroom use is unconstitutional. Also weighing in is the NC Speaker Moore with this inane comment:’
“”It looks an awful lot like politics to me,” House Speaker Tim Moore (R) told reporters, according to the Charlotte Observer. “I guess President Obama, in his final months in office, has decided to take up this ultra-liberal agenda.”
In a Wednesday statement, Moore slammed Obama for trying to “circumvent the will of the electorate and instead unilaterally exert its extreme agenda on the people directly through executive orders, radical interpretations of well-settled common-sense laws and through the federal court system.”
Like the FACT that the NC Legislature introduced and passed this bill without legal notice in 12 hours and governor signed it immediately “isn’t” politics? Who’s the egregious party here?
Fine, think it over Gov. McCrory. You’ve got til Monday to make your move. Comply or ???
Conservatives call themselves “strict constitutionalists” until it doesn’t work for them, then, it’s “individual rights”, or, or…..whatever lame brain excuse they can think of.
Oh, the next “new” Republican move to consolidate control? Pack the courts by expanding the size of the court then fill the new positions with conservatives, creating a conservative majority…..First they disenfranchise voters, then they refuse to move legislation or approve nominees, then they stack the courts by expanding them? Is there no trickery too blatant for this Republican Party?
As I stated in an earlier post: the GOP has learned nothing. If the people of America do not hand this party a massive defeat in ’16, I may be joining ya, Bobo. There has to be consequences. These desperate gasps of power clearly illustrate that the Republican Party as we see it has no intention of reforming itself. Double down all the way.
There is supreme irony in state officials who just ran roughshod over the choices of a city gov’t whining about the Federal gov’t doing the same to them. But the irony and hypocrisy sails several miles over their heads.
“Local is best” my @$$. Not if it conflicts with the supply if raw meat to the base or the interests of rich donors.