Cruz scored a big win in Wisconsin. It doesn’t look like much on paper – Trump still only needs to collect about 54% of the remaining 888 delegates in order to lock up the nomination – about the same position he was in a few weeks ago. So far he has been earning around 46%.
Wisconsin is important because Cruz shouldn’t have performed well there. Wisconsin is rich in the wrong kind of religious conservatives, serious Catholics. This suggests that the race is changing and the #NeverTrump crowd are starting to gain some traction. It also suggests that Trump might struggle more than expected in Pennsylvania and he might be weaker in New York’s upstate districts.
The race is pivoting into some of Trump’s strongest geographies over the next few weeks. If he can’t rack up huge delegate wins in the Northeast then he’s finished.