It will be quieter than usual around here for the next couple of months. This is a very intense time at the day job, culminating with a big trip to Southeast Asia in May. It’s all great stuff, but it means a lot of link posts and short pieces until things settle down in the summer.
In the meantime, I thought it might be fun to post a retrospective. There may be several of these over the next few weeks. Many of the links below go to an old blog site that acts as a sort of archive of old posts. The dates on those posts are the archive date, not the original posting date.
Perhaps we should start with a list of predictions about the 2016 election posted over the years:
Feb, 2011 – Sarah Palin won’t run for President.
September 2011 – Republicans are guaranteed to nominate a nutjob in 2016.
September 2012 – How Romney’s impending loss is setting up a GOP Electoral College nightmare (preview of the Blue Wall).
December 2014 – The GOP base will pick the ’16 nominee.
January 2015 – Why Jeb will probably lose.
December 2015 – Why Republicans cannot hold the Senate.
January 2016 – Cruz will win Iowa by 3-5 pts.
February 2016 – No one can avoid a contested convention. Trump cannot win the nomination without winning a delegate majority. Cruz’s superiority in ground organization means he has the best odds in a convention contest. The Red Wedding Scenario.
February 2016 – The dynamics of a convention contest.