Final delegate counts are still coming in, but the short story is this: Texas delivered the firewall necessary to blunt Trump’s momentum. Though he finished first in a lot of states, his overall delegate haul was just over 40%. This pattern is likely to continue.
Trump didn’t top 50%, the figure necessary in most states to trigger a winner-take-all result, in any of yesterday’s contests. His early burst of success has left him with only about 45% of the delegates assigned so far.
Over the next couple of weeks this split should continue, though he is likely to win all of Florida’s delegates. His next opportunity to pull away will be Ohio’s winner take all contest on March 15th.
If Kasich can hold his home state, and he is polling almost even there, then the delegate math for Trump gets very difficult. Almost all of the remaining states are proportional. He’ll need to poll in excess of 37-40% in each state to gain delegate majorities. As the resistance begins to coalesce that looks increasingly unlikely.
So far, it continues to look like a deadlocked primary.