NBC released a new national poll this morning that’s pretty consistent with the rest of the pack. It gives Clinton a six point lead over Trump, 46-40. It also shows Johnson at 9 and Stein at 3. We’re past the point at which Trump could hope to close the gap. There’s been no great wave of new white voters in PA, OH, WI or MI. Republicans have not consolidated around him. He’s shown no secret competence that he was hiding during the primaries. He’s toast.
So let’s play. How do think the final numbers fall?
With an assist from the friendly folks at 270towin.com Here’s what I think it probably looks like on the map:
Click the map to create your own at 270toWin.com
We should expect that Trump will continue to flail. His behavior will grow more erratic and offensive as the outcome becomes unavoidable. With defeat certain, his veneer of winnerness is being stripped away. People who stuck with him because they thought they had to will start to flee their cages.
Today Trump is polling at about 40%, which is about where he’s been since May. He still has a pretty firm floor in the upper thirties.
Clinton has been hovering at 46-47. Obama went into the ’12 election polling at 48 and finished at 51. That swing was partly about undecided voters finally pulling the lever, but it had more to do with a built-in advantage in the Democratic coalition. Dems enjoy remarkably solid support in concentrated, heavily populated geographies. That leaves their Presidential candidates almost always underpolled in national surveys.
Also watch for some twisting in the third-party outcomes. Johnson will underperform his polling by a pretty big margin in important states like Colorado, North Carolina and Florida. He is likely to score big numbers in places like Texas and Georgia that aren’t supposed to be competitive as disgusted Republicans revolt. That may be enough to tip Georgia to Clinton, though probably not enough for Trump to lose Texas.
My guess is we get an ending like this:
At those numbers nationally, Ohio and Iowa might still be close. If she only gets to 50% nationally she’ll probably lose those two states. Anything less than 53% nationally is probably too weak to flip Texas or Missouri. At my estimate for Clinton Democrats would probably pick up seven seats in the Senate, but fail to take the House.
We’ll see. Early voting has already started in a few places. It will be over soon. For that we can be grateful.